Humanity could become extinct by 2100 because of the harmful use of artificial intelligence (AI) or nuclear conflict, a new global risk assessment warns. The two top a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years. The list also includes cuts in development aid spending by rich countries, the climate crisis and child malnutrition.
The list was drawn up by the experts of the Lancet Commission on 21st-Century Global Threats to Health. They say the risks are interconnected and so need coordinated action, and stress that practical steps can be taken against each of them.
Prof Christopher Murray, co-chair of the commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the United States, said: “The decisions leaders take today will affect the health and wellbeing of the next generation.”
To draw up the list, the commission modelled, on present trends, how many years of healthy life could be lost to illness, disability or early death from each risk. The measure is known as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
The Lancet report says: “Harmful use of artificial intelligence (AI), including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with the risk of nuclear winter and famine could cause the extinction of humanity in the next 75 years.”
It says the probability of these events is low but the consequences could be catastrophic. In a nuclear conflict enough particles could be thrown into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, bringing famine. Bioweapons made with the help of AI could also threaten humanity’s existence.
An editorial in The Lancet published with the report warns that if these risks became reality the scale of the damage would be cataclysmic for humanity.
Risks that could together cost more than 1 billion DALYs are treated as major catastrophic threats. They include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition and the breakdown of the climate system.
The list also has conventional war and conflict, falling foreign aid, excessive drinking, high blood pressure, income inequality, poor-quality education, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.
To be included, it was not enough for a risk to threaten a huge loss of healthy life; there also had to be possible ways of solving it.
Prof Ibrahim Abubakar, a member of the commission and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London (UCL), said: “We did not start from the view that we want to frighten you by saying there are so many threats facing humanity. We started from the idea that if you are a policymaker today, at the global multilateral level or the national level, these are the threats you may face. And the scale of the difference you can make if you act is set out here too.”
According to the report, acting to limit global warming to about 1.8C, in place of letting it reach 4.4C, could prevent the loss of 1.89 billion years of healthy life. The commission arrived at this by modelling best and worst cases for each threat.
In high-income regions non-communicable conditions such as obesity and poor mental health are the main threats. In low-income regions matters such as poor-quality education are a major cause of harm to health.
Many large donor countries, among them the United States and the United Kingdom, have announced deep cuts in development aid over the past year. If international health aid stopped altogether or fell sharply, the world could lose up to 1.5 billion DALYs before 2100. By the commission’s estimate about 70% of that loss would be in sub-Saharan Africa, which also bears the heaviest burden of child malnutrition.
The commission is made up of 35 experts. Their findings were to be presented on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany. The assessment will be updated every year to re-evaluate the 17 threats in the light of new data and emerging risks.
The researchers call on world leaders to deal with the risks before they turn into crises, advising steps such as investment in technological innovation and stronger health systems.
Christopher Murray said: “When we began this process three years ago we thought of three big threats: conflict, climate and pandemics. But it now appears there are many more causes for concern. Governments must allocate money and people to identifying these threats early, preventing them and preparing for them.”
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