Only a few weeks remain before the election that will decide control of the US Congress. Early voting has already begun in several important states. At such a time, President Donald Trump has turned more of his attention to international diplomacy to deal with economic pressure at home. In particular he has moved to reach an understanding with Russia on energy. But in the complicated equations of world politics, that move has now given rise to a new controversy.
Trump’s attempt to ease voters’ discontent by bringing down fuel prices is being obstructed by one international crisis after another. The Russia-Ukraine war, fresh violence in the Middle East and uncertainty over energy supply in the world market are together making the situation steadily harder for him.
The controversy began on Friday afternoon. That day Trump announced a new deal with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. Under it, a large quantity of diesel is to be supplied from Russia to the United States over the coming months. Trump claims Americans will get cheaper fuel as a result. But the reality is not so simple. Diesel is extremely important in the farm states of the American Midwest. From running farm machinery to carrying produce to market, everything depends on this fuel. High diesel prices have therefore put extra pressure on farmers and ordinary consumers.
Opinion polls show that many American voters see the Iran war as a major reason for the rise in fuel prices. In this situation Trump’s overall popularity is falling. Discontent is also growing over his handling of the Iran war and of the country’s economy.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump presented the diesel deal with Russia as a step to ensure cheaper fuel for Americans. He also directed the US Treasury Department to suspend the sanctions on sales of Russian diesel. But the decision has caused political dispute inside the United States itself.
A truce announced, but the attacks did not stop
Two days after announcing the diesel deal, Trump again took to social media to publicise a new energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. From what he said, it seemed there had been major progress on stopping attacks on energy infrastructure in the winter season. The real situation was different.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he had not been told anything in advance about a truce of this kind. He said, however, that Ukraine would abide by the initiative. There was no clear response from Russia. Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Russian forces carried out new attacks on Ukraine’s power plants.
On Monday Zelensky said with sarcasm: “It is clear that Putin does not read Truth Social.” He added that if Russia does not agree to stop attacking energy infrastructure this winter, Ukraine will take counter-measures too.
Relations between Trump and Zelensky have been strained throughout Trump’s second term. On returning to the White House, Trump had claimed that ending the Russia-Ukraine war would be easy for him. With the war continuing, he blames Russia at some times and Ukraine at others.
In recent days Zelensky has become the main target of Trump’s criticism. The US president is presenting Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure as one of the causes of the energy crisis in the world market.
Speaking to journalists at the White House on Saturday, Trump went so far as to say that it was time for Ukraine to have a new president. According to reports by the Financial Times and CNN, Washington has threatened to stop arms sales to Ukraine and the sharing of intelligence if its attacks on Russian oil refineries do not stop. Trump’s position is that Zelensky must stop the attacks this time.
Terry Haines, founder of the independent think tank Pangaea Policy, told the BBC that a continuation of Trump’s long-standing political behaviour can be seen here. In his words, Trump has a record of taking a hard line in public against those who do not act as the president wishes, at the time and in the way he has set.
Success declared before the deal?
Trump’s tendency to present an understanding as a success before it is final is not new. Questions have been raised about whether his announcement of a Russia-Ukraine energy truce reflects that same old tactic.
Before this, too, Trump has announced success on a Middle East ceasefire or a major peace deal before a final understanding was reached. Sometimes this has been regarded as a tactic for creating pressure in diplomacy, sometimes as an impatient attempt to get quick results.
But the reality of diplomacy is that an announcement and a working agreement are not the same thing. Unless the consent of the parties concerned, the carrying out of the terms and an end to fighting on the ground are assured, it is hard to get the benefit of an announcement. That gap has become clear this time too.
International reaction to Trump’s announcement was not slow in coming. Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, who is known as one of Trump’s sharpest critics on the international stage, expressed firm support for the energy truce. But he strongly opposed the move to import diesel from Russia into the United States.
In Carney’s view, a deal of this kind could weaken efforts for peace and stability in Europe. It also carries the risk of providing money for Russia to carry on its “illegal and unjustified war” against Ukraine.
Concern about Trump’s decision has arisen inside the United States as well. Four senators from his own Republican Party have joined the Democrats in calling for the decision to suspend the sanctions to be withdrawn at once.
In a statement published on Sunday, the senators said Congress had banned energy imports from Russia in 2022 to stop the financing of Russian President Putin’s war against Ukraine. They allege that by allowing diesel to be imported from Russia into the United States, Trump is going directly against that law. A decision taken to bring down fuel prices has thus become a cause of political and legal controversy for Trump.
Diesel prices are not coming down
What may be most frustrating for Trump is that even after the announcement of a truce and the news of a deal with Russia, there has been no significant effect on the price of diesel. The price has fallen a little from its record high but is still above $6 a gallon.
This has made Trump’s political calculations more complicated, because for voters the price of fuel is a direct economic problem. When the cost of farming, of transporting goods and of daily living rises, the blame in the end falls on the administration in power.
Trump’s expectation that the market can be brought under control quickly by announcing an international deal is not matching reality. On the contrary, new controversy has arisen over relations with Russia, Ukraine’s security and the effectiveness of sanctions.
New concern over Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia
In the middle of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, new violence in the Middle East has put extra pressure on the world energy market. Airports and energy infrastructure have been hit in new attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia. At least 13 people are reported to have been killed in the weekend’s attacks. This has raised fears that a conflict that has gone on for nearly a decade will widen further.
Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told the BBC that the Houthi attacks send a clear message that their targets are not limited to military installations or energy infrastructure. Civilian airports may also be attacked, he said, with the risk of many deaths.
In Ratney’s view, no Arab country in the Middle East wanted a war between the United States and Iran. But events such as the Houthis’ recent attacks are emerging as a consequence of that conflict. If the long-standing tension between the United States and Iran turns afresh into regional conflict, the situation could become more dangerous still. Besides disrupting oil supply, this risks pushing prices in the world market higher.
Who is to blame for the energy crisis?
In recent weeks Trump has tried to put the war in Ukraine forward as the main cause of the worldwide energy crisis. He has also mentioned that the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has in effect been disrupted by Iran’s military threat.
But there is doubt about how effective shifting the blame for the crisis in this way will be in reducing the American public’s discontent. Several international conflicts, uncertainty in supply and geopolitical tension all lie behind the rise in fuel prices.
Trump’s political problem is that although his control over fuel prices in the world market is limited, the country’s voters may hold the sitting president responsible for their economic hardship. Explanations that point to the policies of past administrations or the military actions of other countries may not always be acceptable to them.
Before the election, bringing down fuel prices is therefore a political necessity for Trump as well as an economic aim. Yet from the diesel deal with Russia to the dispute with Ukraine and the new conflict in the Middle East, the expected relief has not yet come on any front.
All in all, an unsettled week has shown once again that there is no easy solution to the global energy crisis. The situation cannot be changed overnight by the announcement of a truce, a bilateral deal or a decision to relax sanctions.
And for Donald Trump, facing an election, that is the greatest cause for worry. If fuel prices stay beyond the reach of ordinary people and the international conflicts are not brought under control, the political pressure on him may grow further.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report