The newly formed BNP government has just passed three and a half months in office — and it is already facing a crisis. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has himself hinted at his government’s fragile position, saying hard times lie ahead and that the country will suffer if the days are passed in ease. But according to an investigation by Shirsho News and Shirsho Kagoj, the real situation is far more serious than his hint suggests. The prime minister said a “hard crisis” lies ahead; the information obtained suggests the crisis has already arrived, with troubles under way inside and outside the government. The report argues that, where Sheikh Hasina faced a crisis after fifteen unbroken years in power, the present BNP government faces — at three and a half months — a crisis at least three times as severe, and multi-front: Hasina’s was one-dimensional, purely geopolitical, while the current government’s spans geopolitics, finances, and an image problem fed by missteps and the controversial conduct of responsible figures. Even setting aside political opponents and ordinary critics, sharp criticism, anger and discontent are being heard from the government’s own people — especially the loyalists who endured jail and persecution through the long previous era; they, the report says, are now the most aggrieved, with some calling the government’s “wrong” steps “dangerously self-destructive.”
The geopolitical crisis. According to the report, the biggest crisis before the BNP government is geopolitical — something not expected of a three-month-old government. Bangladesh sits under the influence of both India and the United States, with China largely confined to economics. Through the Awami League’s three terms, the report argues, Washington largely deferred to Delhi’s wishes — which is why repeated opposition movements never threatened the Hasina government despite her collapsed popularity. The United States has long sought a military foothold in the region — once St Martin’s Island, later the AUKUS and GSOMIA frameworks, drafts of which, the report claims, were exchanged late in Sheikh Hasina’s tenure but never finalised because India would not allow them, fearing a US military presence would be catastrophic for its own integrity. The report also asserts that relations between India and the Dr Muhammad Yunus government were hostile from the start — describing Dr Yunus as “America’s man” — and that India therefore supported holding the national election and the BNP’s coming to power, assuming the BNP would govern under Indian influence as the Awami League had.
For the first two and a half months, the report says, it largely did. Then the government changed course. On 7 April, Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman and the prime minister’s foreign-affairs adviser Humayun Kabir visited Delhi; the visit began warmly but ended in bitterness. The foreign minister, the report claims, is “entirely America’s man.” After the India trip, the government began building ties with the United States, China and Pakistan simultaneously — which the report attributes to American manoeuvring, citing diplomatic sources who claim a new understanding has formed between Washington and Beijing. A smuggling, narcotics and strategic-information-exchange agreement has recently been signed with Pakistan — wholly unexpected for India — while delegation after delegation visits China. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is himself expected in Beijing soon: he is due in Malaysia on 21-22 June, then plans to fly from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on 23 June, with Foreign Secretary Asad Alam Siam going ahead to prepare. The government is also moving fast on the Padma Barrage and the Teesta master plan, and there is talk that the AUKUS and GSOMIA agreements are moving in a positive direction — every one of these issues “sensitive” and deeply worrying for India. Through all this, the report says, relations between the BNP government and India are deteriorating rapidly.
The internal crisis and what follows. Last week the wire of the prime minister’s red telephone was stolen inside the Bangladesh Secretariat — a small incident, but one treated seriously by the media and the government alike, and read by some as a “signal” of conspiracy. Political analysts quoted in the report argue that the more popularity and public support the government retains, the smaller the chance such a conspiracy succeeds — but question whether the government is alert to its eroding popularity. Within the government’s own ranks, complaints of unfairness are spreading: those owed nothing are getting plenty while others are continually deprived, and rivalries are intensifying. For many of the government’s actions, the report says, there is no answer to the question “why.” After two decades out of power — and with the public expecting a more skilled, disciplined administration given the BNP’s two previous terms under Begum Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman’s long engagement with party and state affairs from abroad — no one can accept how disorganised the government now looks. Analysts quoted say the government appears to control nothing; transparency and accountability are lacking even as the public demands them most; and despite specific allegations of open bribery and corruption, no action is taken, so criticism keeps mounting. Election pledges — canal digging, family cards, farmer cards — are being pursued, but without asking what people actually want first. The analysts warn that if this continues the BNP government will lose popularity very quickly, to the point of an existential crisis: the spirit of the uprising remains, “counter-revolution” is a familiar word after every revolution, and public discontent outside plus anger inside the party will not block such a conspiracy — it will make room for it. The time to take warning, they say, is now. Source: Shirsho News.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report