Official figures show inflation is easing, meaning the rate of price increases is slowing. But ordinary people’s grocery costs are not falling — in fact, the pressure on low- and limited-income families’ monthly spending keeps growing. The main reason is that while the inflation rate has come down, the high price level built up over the past several years has not come back down. So even as the pace of new price increases in the market has slowed somewhat, new price rises keep stacking on top of the already elevated levels.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ (BBS) latest figures, the country’s overall point-to-point inflation edged down slightly to 8.26 percent in August. The rate had been 8.32 percent in July — meaning inflation fell by just 0.06 percentage points in a single month. Food inflation also eased, from 7.16 percent in July to 7.02 percent in August. But over the same period, the monthly food price index rose by 3.86 percent — meaning that while the annual pace of price increases slowed somewhat, the actual price level in the market did not come down.
Even more concerning, the national wage growth rate fell to 8.05 percent in August — meaning average wage growth now sits below the 8.26 percent inflation rate. This means the cost of living is rising slightly faster than people’s average income growth, keeping pressure on real purchasing power.
Falling inflation doesn’t mean falling prices
This distinction in economics is now creating the biggest gap between ordinary people’s lived experience and official statistics. Consider a product that cost 100 taka a year ago. A year later, it costs 108 taka — that’s 8 percent inflation. If the price then rises from 108 to 112 taka the following year, inflation falls to around 3.7 percent. But the product’s price never went back to 100 taka — instead, it rose by 12 taka over the two years. A broadly similar situation has developed in Bangladesh’s markets. Years of high inflation have significantly raised price levels for rice, oil, lentils, fish, meat, spices and other daily essentials. Even though the rate of increase has now slowed somewhat, the earlier price level remains in place. So while official statistics point to the comfort of falling inflation, many families don’t feel that relief when they actually go to the market.
What changed for which products over a year
This dual picture is also clear in an analysis of TCB market prices. Compared with the same period last year, some products have become cheaper, while several basic food items have become more expensive. A TCB-based market analysis published in September 2025 found coarse rice prices about 7.5 percent higher than a year earlier, fine rice 11.11 percent higher, and medium-grade fine rice 17.39 percent higher. Local onions, however, fell from 110-120 taka a year earlier to around 50-60 taka — a significant annual relief on that front. On the other hand, TCB’s year-on-year comparison found that prices of rice, lentils, flour, maida, oil, fish and meat, among other products, had risen, while some products such as onions, garlic and eggs were cheaper than the previous year. That TCB-based analysis found annual price increases in coarse rice, flour, loose soybean oil, lentils, broiler chicken, rui fish and beef — meaning there is no single trend in the market right now. Some products have become cheaper, but not enough to bring down a family’s total grocery-basket spending.
The market beyond the year-on-year figures
Various markets in the capital are currently seeing fresh volatility in prices. A dozen eggs is now selling for 160-165 taka, up from 140-145 taka just a few days ago — about a 20-taka jump per dozen in just a few days. The vegetable market shows a similar mix of rises and falls. Potatoes are selling at 25 taka a kilogram, tomatoes at 100, onions at 50, bitter gourd at 80, white brinjal at 120 and long brinjal at 100 taka. White brinjal was 90-100 taka and long brinjal 80 taka just a while ago. Pointed gourd has risen from 60 to 70 taka, and okra from 50 to 60 taka. On the other hand, radish has fallen from 60 to 50 taka, and green chilli from 160 to 120 taka. Bottle gourd is selling for 50-70 taka depending on size, yard-long beans at 80 taka, and coriander leaves at around 200 taka a kilogram. A few months ago, potatoes could be bought at six kilograms for 100 taka; now buyers have to pay up to 25 taka a kilogram.
There is some temporary relief in the poultry market. Broiler chicken is 180 taka a kilogram, down from around 190 taka a week ago. Layer and cock chicken, however, cost around 370 taka a kilogram. In the fish market, tilapia is 250-300 taka a kilogram — sellers say that’s up 40-50 taka a kilogram from before. Large pangas is 220-250 taka and small pangas around 200 taka a kilogram. Amid these fluctuations, the real problem is that even when one product’s price falls, increases in several others wipe out that relief.
Where low-income families are cutting back
Monir Hossain drives a rickshaw in Dhaka to support a family of six. His monthly income is around 18,000 taka, and his son’s income is around 24,000 taka — putting the family’s total income at around 42,000 taka. Rent, electricity and gas together cost around 10,000 taka, and food costs 23,000-24,000 taka. Daily market spending averages 700-800 taka. His family needs around 50 kilograms of rice every month and a half, and about six litres of cooking oil a month. At 210 taka a litre, oil alone costs around 1,260 taka a month. According to Monir, essentials cost three to four thousand taka less a month just three or four months ago. The core problem in his account is that his income hasn’t risen, but his spending has. This means inflation is not just a market problem — it’s a problem of restructuring a family’s entire budget. When food spending rises, families are forced to cut back on healthcare, education, clothing, transport or savings. This cutting-back happens even faster in low-income households.
Hasan, who runs a small roadside stall in Tejgaon, describes a similar experience. Two or three months ago, he could do his weekly grocery shopping for 1,000-1,200 taka; now the same shopping costs him more. By his estimate, his weekly grocery spending has risen by around 25 percent over the past two or three months.
The real pressure isn’t food — it’s purchasing power
Inflation’s biggest damage is to real income, or purchasing power. Although overall inflation was 8.26 percent in August, national wage growth stood at 8.05 percent — meaning wage growth trails price growth by 0.21 percentage points. This gap may seem small, but its impact is large for low-income families, because a large share of their income goes toward food, rent, transport and fuel. Unlike higher-income families, they cannot easily adjust by cutting back on savings or luxury spending. So even as inflation eases slightly, bringing real relief to low-income people will require several things at once: stable food price levels, real wage growth, an improved supply system, lower transport and middleman costs, greater market competition, and effective monitoring against sudden price spikes.
Not just an international-market problem
North South University economics department assistant professor Dr Shibbir Ahmed told Naya Diganta that explanations for rising prices often point to international markets, fuel costs and subsidies. In his view, alongside these, domestic structural inefficiencies, opaque agreements, weaknesses in the supply system and market management problems must also be taken into account. He said that without effectively tackling allegations of syndicates and extortion in the essentials market, it is difficult to control price pressure through monetary policy alone. He claimed, however, that if extortion were stopped, prices in Dhaka could fall by up to 40 percent — a claim he acknowledged is an estimate, not something that can be treated as a certain outcome without reliable quantitative evidence. This is precisely where the issue matters for policymaking: it’s important to know by what percentage a product’s price is elevated, but without knowing how much of that excess comes from production costs, transport, wholesale-retail margins, and informal costs, it’s hard to pin down the real cause.
A long-term solution is hard without boosting supply
Professor Abu Ahmed, former chairman of Dhaka University’s economics department, told Naya Diganta that market prices don’t return to previous levels just because inflation falls. Seasonal product prices, production costs and weaknesses in the supply system can keep certain products’ prices elevated. In his view, the private sector needs to be activated to boost production and supply. Easing the investment climate, lowering production costs and reducing uncertainty in business activity are all important. This view connects directly to the recent market picture — food inflation fell to 7.02 percent in August, but the monthly food price index still rose 3.86 percent, meaning that even as the annual pace of inflation slowed, there was still upward pressure on prices within the month.
Official statistics versus market experience: both are true
There is actually no direct contradiction between the official statistics and ordinary people’s experience. The BBS says the rate of price increase has slowed. Consumers say prices haven’t fallen. Both statements can be true at the same time. Inflation is the rate of price increase — it is not the market price level itself. So inflation falling to 8.26 percent does not mean products in the market are selling 8.26 percent cheaper. Rather, it means overall price levels are still more than 8 percent higher than a year ago. And when this elevated price level accumulates over several years, a small drop in inflation may not bring immediate relief to ordinary people’s lives.
The bigger policy question ahead
In controlling inflation, the key question now isn’t just “what’s the rate,” but rather looking together at which product costs how much, why it’s expensive, and how much people’s income is actually rising. TCB has a system for regularly monitoring market prices and publishes daily and 30-day price data. But publishing data alone isn’t enough for market management. There also needs to be continuous investigation into which products are seeing abnormal margins, where supply is getting disrupted, and where transport or middleman costs are rising abnormally. The Department of Agricultural Marketing’s current price-monitoring system also allows for product-based, market-based and time-based comparisons — meaning there isn’t a complete data gap; the gap lies in converting that data quickly into market-management decisions.
What relief actually looks like
For a low-income family, falling inflation will mean something real only when there’s some money left over at the end of the month. When they can buy more from the market than before. When they don’t have to borrow for medical treatment or their children’s education. When a sudden rise in egg, fish or vegetable prices doesn’t force them to change their entire diet. So while inflation falling to 8.26 percent is a positive statistical shift, it cannot be equated with a fall in the cost of living. The current reality is that the pace of inflation has slowed somewhat, but the high price level remains, and wage growth has fallen below inflation during the same period. TCB’s year-on-year comparison shows the same dual picture — significant relief on some products, like onions, but continued spending pressure on many essentials, including rice, oil, lentils, fish and meat. So bringing real relief to the market requires more than just lowering the inflation rate. What’s needed is stabilising price levels, raising real incomes, and reducing inefficiency and abnormal costs across the entire chain, from production and supply through to the retail market. Because, in the end, the most important economic statistic for any individual is how much money is left in hand after paying for groceries out of that month’s salary or income.