Tensions over the Iran war have flared again. Since last week, the United States and Iran have resumed striking each other. But as time passes, the influence of one particular date on the conflict is becoming increasingly clear.
The United States holds midterm elections this November, with voting on Nov. 3. This election could become an important turning point for the Iran war, because President Donald Trump’s senior advisers want to prevent the Iran conflict from turning into a full-scale war again before the election.
In the midterms, Trump-backing Republicans are trying to hold onto their majority in both chambers of Congress. Republicans currently lead by a narrow margin in both chambers.
For this reason, at this critical time, Washington is moving toward applying economic pressure on Iran rather than using full military force. Last month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on 60 individuals and entities that trade with Iran, particularly those buying its oil. It has also threatened other countries, saying that doing business with Tehran would expose them to U.S. sanctions as well.
At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s ports continues, putting pressure on Tehran’s oil exports.
Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance is trying to downplay the importance of the Iran war to the American public. The war began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. The war has driven up fuel prices in the U.S., and the public has taken a stand against it. Amid fears that this public opposition could hurt the Republican Party ahead of the midterms, Vance is believed to be trying to portray the matter as less significant.
However, it is unclear how long the Trump administration can maintain its restraint. U.S. forces have continued striking Iran for several days. U.S. leaders say the possibility of further military action still exists. Vance said last week, “Anything could happen — everything is on the table.”
Vance’s “anything” includes various forms of pressure, including economic, military, diplomatic and covert operations.
The midterms are still two months away. There is uncertainty over whether the U.S. can maintain its strategy of avoiding full-scale war while continuing to escalate economic pressure for that long. Besides, Iran has its own calculations — it, too, could respond militarily. In that case, the U.S. might be forced into full-scale conflict before the midterms, even if it doesn’t want to be.
Why the midterms matter for Trump
The midterm election will determine whether the Republican Party can hold onto its narrow lead in Congress. If the war intensifies again, more people may decide to vote against the Trump administration.
Many Americans have already taken a position against the Iran war, and Trump’s popularity at home has hit rock bottom. If full-scale conflict can be kept from breaking out until November, it may be possible to prevent the issue from becoming a central campaign issue.
The United States and Israel jointly launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from late last month found that only 31% of Americans support the Iran war, while 63% oppose it. According to the poll, Trump’s approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began.
Observers say the Trump administration did not expect the Iran war to drag on this far.
In early March, Trump insisted the war would last “at most four or five weeks.” That did not happen. The Iran war has now passed six months and stretched into a seventh, with no sign of ending. Instead, the war has brought some unexpected consequences — including rising fuel prices after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Like the rest of the world, the warring countries themselves have felt the impact of rising oil prices. The rise in fuel prices has made the Iran war even more unpopular among ordinary Americans.
Diesel prices in the U.S. hit a record high last Thursday, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.
This is especially damaging for Trump, since he campaigned on a promise to dramatically cut energy costs, alongside a pledge not to get entangled in “unnecessary” wars.
The war’s effects have not been confined to gas stations. As fuel and transportation costs continue to rise, they have begun affecting the prices of everyday goods, showing signs of pushing inflation even higher in the U.S. This is happening at a time when opposition Democrats are highlighting the cost of living as a key issue in their midterm campaign.
A Politico poll conducted in August found 61% of Americans believe the Iran war has raised their household cost of living — up 4 percentage points from a month earlier.
Can Trump keep control of the war until November?
There are already signs the Trump administration is attempting exactly this. In recent weeks, Washington has intensified efforts to economically isolate Iran, threatening harsh sanctions against countries that continue trading with Iran while maintaining military pressure around the Strait of Hormuz.
By striking Iran earlier this week, Trump also signaled he is prepared to carry out isolated strikes while trying to prevent the war from breaking out in full force again.
Senior Trump administration officials are also trying to downplay the scale of the military conflict. Asked at a White House briefing whether the Iran war would end before the midterms, Vice President JD Vance said he would not call it a “war.” He claimed, “There is no active exchange of fire happening right now.”
Asked when Iran would stop attacking commercial vessels, Vance said, “You’ll have to ask the Iranians that.” He added that the conflict’s impact on the global energy market is “diminishing by the day.”
The U.S. claims it is safely escorting about 30 ships through the Strait of Hormuz every night. U.S. officials also claim about 18 million barrels of oil were transported through the strait last Tuesday, though international shipping data does not fully support this claim.
Analysts warn that maintaining a strategy of isolated strikes in a state of “neither war nor peace” is extremely risky.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera, “Tehran won’t bow to [economic] pressure. Both sides may think they can keep the conflict under control. But every new round of tit-for-tat strikes raises the risk of a broader regional conflict.”
A U.S. strike this week is believed to have hit a civilian home in Kuhestak, southern Iran, where a wedding was taking place. The strike killed at least four people, including children, and injured several others.
The Washington Post also reported last Sunday that senior U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force officials warned Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth in a written assessment that continuing the war with Iran at its current pace is unsustainable, risking weakened U.S. military readiness in other regions of the world.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the U.S.-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that this week’s strikes show the U.S. remains deeply uncertain strategically.
Parsi added that Washington had imposed sweeping economic sanctions on Iran aiming to avoid the need for military intervention, but the U.S. resumed bombing Iran just seven days later. In this expert’s view, “The U.S. seems to be jumping from one position to another.”
Iran’s calculations
Although the U.S. and Iran have resumed exchanging strikes since last week, the intensity is far lower than in the war’s first weeks. Even compared to the two rounds of tension last July, fewer strikes are occurring now. But that does not mean the risk is lower — the intensity of the conflict could rise at any time. It may even be in Iran’s interest for the conflict to intensify.
Iran has shown considerable skill in this asymmetric war against a vastly more powerful adversary, including using cheap, mass-produced drones to exhaust the United States’ extremely expensive defense systems, and striking U.S. allies in the Gulf region to sow division and instability there.
In particular, Iran has demonstrated an effective ability to severely disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has had a major impact on the global economy.
Before the Iran war began, commercial ships could pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran continues striking U.S. or regional military installations, shipping, or energy infrastructure, pressure will grow on Washington to respond even more forcefully than the several strikes carried out last week. This could create a cycle of escalating conflict. Whatever the White House’s midterm calculations, the outcome could be that the two countries once again become entangled in a large-scale war.
Additionally, Washington’s economic strategy to isolate Tehran could provoke Iran into a larger-scale retaliation. Washington is increasing economic pressure on Tehran as an attempt to step back from direct war.
Parsi said Iranian officials believe Trump ultimately wants to launch a larger-scale war, and is simply waiting for the midterms to conclude.
This could create a potentially dangerous calculation for Tehran. Tehran may conclude that escalating the conflict would be more advantageous precisely when Trump is at his most politically vulnerable.
Parsi said, “In response, the Iranians might themselves quickly initiate a war right before the midterms, to put maximum pressure on the U.S. president.”
What happens after November
A Reuters report last Wednesday said senior White House officials are already discussing whether to intensify military operations against Iran after the Nov. 3 vote. However, no decision has yet been made on returning to full-scale conflict.
If Republicans win the midterms, Trump may gain more political room to choose that option — particularly if the administration views the election results as evidence of public support for the war, or at least a lack of sufficient voter opposition to it.
But if Republicans lose, the situation could become more complicated, as more uncertainty would follow.
On one hand, losing control of one or both chambers of Congress would limit the Trump administration’s power, since Congress controls government funding. If Democrats gain control of the House or Senate, Trump’s opponents would have more opportunities to hold hearings, investigate U.S. actions in the war, and block requests for additional military spending.
On the other hand, after Nov. 3, Trump would no longer face pressure over the congressional election. As a result, experts fear he may feel less need to keep the war under control.
Parsi therefore warned that the situation Tehran expects to follow a defeat for Trump’s party could, in reality, turn out to be the opposite. He said, “I’m not sure this would ultimately be advantageous for Iran. Because a Trump facing a humiliating [potential] election defeat, confronting a [potentially] Democrat-controlled House and Senate, could become an even more desperate and reckless president.”