After a recent Houthi attack wounded 73 civilians in southern Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has warned of retaliatory action against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The attack also damaged several Saudi energy facilities, with fires temporarily disrupting operations in some locations.
The Houthis have been in conflict with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government since they seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. A Saudi-led military campaign began in 2015, and after a long, bloody war, a fragile ceasefire took hold in 2022.
The conflict has intensified again in recent days. The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia carried out 121 airstrikes in Yemen over the past three days. The Saudi government has not directly commented on this claim, but the Yemeni government has acknowledged conducting several airstrikes on Houthi military buildups.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the door to diplomacy has not been fully closed and that Saudi Arabia wants a peaceful solution, but that it would not hesitate to take necessary measures to protect the country’s security.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said on social media Tuesday that their recent attacks on Saudi Arabia were retaliatory measures. He alleged that Saudi Arabia carried out 121 airstrikes in Yemen over the past three days, including one that damaged a prison and left inmates trapped under rubble.
Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the country is “once again heading toward a large-scale war.” He said de-escalation is not impossible, but that it is becoming extremely difficult in practical terms.
According to local security officials, the conflict in Yemen sharply escalated last week, with the Houthis attempting to seize areas that would have given them greater control over Red Sea shipping lanes.
Saudi officials had been trying to avoid direct conflict with the Houthis, but according to Farea Al-Muslimi, a Middle East and North Africa researcher at Chatham House, “It is becoming impossible for them to avoid it any longer.” He added, “Today’s developments will further accelerate Saudi Arabia’s involvement in this war.”
The Houthis have threatened to target Saudi ships and oil export infrastructure in the Red Sea, a move that could further destabilize the Middle East and push up global energy prices. Following the latest attack, the price of Brent crude oil rose to $99 per barrel.
Experts believe there is little realistic chance Saudi Arabia could fully defeat the Houthis if it entered a new full-scale war. Instead, Riyadh may try to weaken the Houthis in order to shape a future political settlement in Yemen in its favor.
Saudi Arabia’s 2015 military campaign created a prolonged crisis in Yemen and, despite massive loss of life, failed to remove the Houthis from power. As a result, the risk of becoming entangled in another major military conflict remains considerable for Saudi Arabia this time as well.