The official results of Israel’s general election have been published. But while the division of seats in parliament is clear, there is deep uncertainty over who will be the country’s next prime minister. A government needs 61 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, and no major party reached that number on its own. Intense talks and attempts at deals have begun among party leaders over the premiership.
The path to forming a government is difficult both for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and for his main political rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither camp holds a majority on its own. In this situation, the Arab parties, which won an unprecedented 19 seats, could play the leading role in forming a new government.
Any possible coalition will require the parties to make hard compromises that could anger their own supporters. If the parties ultimately fail to reach a deal, the country will face another election early next year. Until then, the caretaker government led by Netanyahu will stay in power.
A possible alliance with the Arab parties
On paper, the easiest route is for Eisenkot to bring in the Arab parties, which would give him a strong 67-seat alliance. Even without joining the government directly, the Arab parties could keep a minority government alive by backing it from outside. But for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies, this is a very risky move.
Arab citizens make up 20 percent of the country’s population, most of them of Palestinian descent. Because of their close ties to Palestinians, a large part of Israel’s Jewish population does not trust them. Only once before, in 2021, has an Arab party joined a coalition government, and that government lasted just 18 months. Netanyahu is already increasing pressure on the opposition by portraying such an alliance as a threat to Israel’s national security.
A national unity government
As an alternative, Netanyahu could try to bring Eisenkot and his right-wing partners over to his side. If that happened, Netanyahu would have a large majority of 67 seats, and the ultra-Orthodox and far-right nationalist groups, along with the Arab parties, would go into opposition. Such a unity government could be effective in tackling sensitive issues such as economic reform or the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service.
The biggest obstacle on this path is broken promises. Eisenkot and his partners had pledged not to sit in government with Netanyahu, citing the security failure of October 2023, the weakening of democratic institutions and his ongoing corruption cases. Moreover, a government led by Netanyahu would never approve a state inquiry into those events, which is the main demand of opposition voters. Netanyahu would also have to abandon his long-loyal allies to form such a coalition.
Trying to split the opposition
Netanyahu is now looking for weak points in the opposition camp in a bid to break it apart. He may try to win back his former right-wing allies Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman.
Because they support the policy of expanding settlements in the occupied territories, an alliance with the Arab parties is hard for them. But they also have long-standing, bitter personal feuds with Netanyahu. Bennett and Lieberman are fiercely opposed in particular to exempting the ultra-Orthodox from army conscription. For Eisenkot, on the other hand, prising anyone away from Netanyahu’s camp is almost impossible, because the members of Netanyahu’s party are extremely loyal to him.
The prospect of yet another election
If no party can secure the majority it needs, Israel will head towards another election, which could be held early next year. In the interim, Netanyahu’s government will remain in charge.
That could be a serious setback for the opposition. There is doubt over whether the thousands of Israeli citizens who came from abroad to vote in this election would come again for a second round. Netanyahu, meanwhile, would be able to use the time to strengthen his coalition. After the 2019 election, a similar deadlock led Israel to hold five general elections in three and a half years.
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