India’s weather office has brought forward Cyclone Arnab’s expected landfall near Yanam to the early hours of October 28, with stronger winds than in its earlier forecast. Bangladesh’s early October 27 bulletin kept four ports under caution and advised fishing boats in the North Bay to stay close to the coast.
Story in brief
- The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has advised Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla, and Payra to keep Local Cautionary Signal No. 3 hoisted as Arnab, a very severe cyclonic storm, crosses the west-central Bay.
- At 3 a.m. on Tuesday, October 27, the storm’s centre was 990 kilometres southwest of Chattogram, with maximum sustained winds of 118 kilometres an hour and gusts to 150. Fishing boats and trawlers in the North Bay have been told to remain close to the coast.
- In a bulletin issued at 11:26 p.m. Indian time on October 27, the IMD forecast landfall near and south of Yanam between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m., with sustained winds of 125 to 135 kilometres an hour and gusts to 150. Evacuation figures remain moving counts, not final totals.
- Bangladesh is outside the forecast landfall zone, but rough seas and rain remain hazards. A BMD meteorologist’s earlier outlook suggested light coastal rain on Wednesday and Thursday and rain in Dhaka and Rajshahi on Thursday.
Signal over the ports
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s special bulletin, issued early on Tuesday, advises all four maritime ports, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla, and Payra, to keep Local Cautionary Signal No. 3 hoisted. Arnab moved west-northwest overnight and strengthened into a very severe cyclonic storm early on Tuesday morning.
At 3 a.m. the storm was centred at 15.8 degrees north and 85.6 degrees east, about 990 kilometres southwest of Chattogram port, 945 kilometres southwest of Cox’s Bazar, and 865 kilometres south of both Mongla and Payra. Maximum sustained winds within 64 kilometres of the centre reached about 118 kilometres an hour, rising to 150 in gusts and squalls, and the sea near the centre is very rough. All fishing boats and trawlers operating in the North Bay have been advised to remain close to the coast and proceed with utmost caution until further notice.
Signal No. 3 warns of squally weather affecting the ports; it does not mean conditions at sea are safe. On Monday at noon the ports had flown distant warning signal No. 2. The position and wind figures above describe the 3 a.m. Bangladesh bulletin, not the cyclone’s position later on October 27.
Storm’s track to Andhra
The India Meteorological Department’s coastal bulletin, issued at 11:26 p.m. Indian time on October 27, forecasts landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, near and south of Yanam, between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. on October 28. It says faster movement has brought the expected crossing forward. Maximum sustained winds at landfall are forecast at 125 to 135 kilometres an hour, gusting to 150.
The bulletin forecasts a storm surge of 1.5 to 2.5 metres above the astronomical tide along affected parts of Andhra Pradesh, with 2 to 3.5 metres near the Godavari river mouth. It warns of heavy rain, poor visibility and dangerous seas. These are forecasts, not measurements of damage already sustained.
Bangladesh sits outside that track. BMD meteorologist Md. Abdul Hamid Mia said the cyclone’s current path is directed towards the Andhra coast, which suggests a minimal direct impact on Bangladesh. Coastal areas might experience light rain on Wednesday and Thursday, and Dhaka and Rajshahi divisions could see light rain on Thursday, after Arnab makes landfall in India.
Evacuation on the other coast
On the coast the storm is heading for, a large evacuation is under way. Nearly 50,000 people had been moved to shelters from vulnerable areas by Monday night, of an estimated 400,000 who need to be evacuated, Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, told Reuters. “Evacuation is continuing,” Jain said. Preliminary assessments put 16 districts, encompassing 2,460 revenue villages and 92 urban areas, directly in the storm’s path; 1,763 cyclone shelters had been readied, and national and state disaster response teams were positioned in 11 high-risk districts. A separate state account put 101 relief camps prepared to accommodate around 89,000 people.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu ordered officials on Monday to ensure the storm was constantly monitored and advance precautions taken. Authorities ordered evacuations in key low-lying areas and closed all educational institutions in some districts from Tuesday until Saturday. More than 4,700 pregnant women living in potentially dangerous areas have been relocated to hospitals. Train services were cancelled and an orange alert was in force for Visakhapatnam, where light rain had already begun.
Sri Lanka, on the storm’s southern flank, closed schools amid warnings of torrential rain, flash floods and mudslides, and placed its military on alert. Rainfall and local flooding risks extend beyond the cyclone’s forecast landfall point.
What happens next
The IMD and BMD bulletins remain the authorities for changes in track, wind, surge and port signals. The early-hours crossing is a forecast window, not a confirmed landfall. Evacuations and local damage reports will need to be checked separately as conditions change. Fishing crews should follow the latest BMD instructions rather than infer safety from a landfall forecast outside Bangladesh.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report