Though it has remained inactive since being ousted from power in a mass uprising, the banned Awami League is moving forward with a new strategy centered on December. Efforts are under way to organize party leaders and workers, increase contact with fugitive top leaders, and demonstrate the party’s continued existence through flash processions, while also trying to keep grassroots workers active with December as a “target.” Centered on the announcement by Awami League President Sheikh Hasina, currently in India, that she will return to the country, leaders and workers are allegedly organizing and plotting unrest and sabotage. Grassroots workers are reportedly staying in touch with fugitive top leaders using modern technology. Narayanganj’s fugitive leader Shamim Osman has also directed leaders and workers to be ready in December, in a video of his that has gone viral.
Multiple sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that a report based on intelligence information on this issue has been prepared and briefed to senior levels of the government.
Sources say that to demonstrate their strength, Awami League leaders and workers have staged several flash processions in the capital and various parts of the country over the past two weeks. Law enforcement is particularly concerned about incidents in Banani, Mymensingh, Shariatpur, Savar and Sunamganj. Police headquarters has already alerted all units and issued a warning message at the field level. The entire team at Kotwali Model Police Station’s outpost No. 1 in Mymensingh’s Ganginapar area was withdrawn for negligence of duty in preventing a flash procession by Jubo League leaders and workers there. The team, including the outpost in-charge, had 27 members.
Analysts and senior police officials believe that, given public anger following the killings of July-August, it will not be easy for the Awami League to return to the country so quickly and be rehabilitated in politics. In their view, this is essentially a strategy to keep workers’ morale up and preserve the party’s political existence. Meanwhile, the administration and intelligence agencies have been told to remain on maximum alert to prevent any kind of sabotage.
Former Inspector General of Police (IG) Abdul Kaiyum said that while in power, Awami League leaders from the top down to the district and upazila levels became deeply involved in corruption and criminal activity. He said they have a lot of money, and could use it to attempt to create anarchy in the country. He said he does not believe they will succeed in this, because the killings of July-August 2024 remain fresh in the public’s mind. Extreme torture and killings were carried out against women, children and ordinary people. Overall, he said, there is no sympathy or support for the party among the general public.
He said that even so, the administration and intelligence agencies must remain constantly alert to keep the law-and-order situation normal. He said advance information must be gathered and necessary steps taken to prevent any attempt to create unrest through extremist contacts or domestic or foreign conspiracies from succeeding, and that anti-fascist unity must be strengthened.
It is understood that leaders and workers in Gopalganj, Shariatpur, Madaripur, Faridpur, Gazipur, Narsingdi and Narayanganj districts are maintaining the most contact with fugitive top leaders. Using modern technology and encrypted apps, they are staying in constant contact with fugitive leaders at home and abroad. Funds are also reportedly being built up for anti-government activity under the cover of business.
An additional IG of police said that during the Awami League government’s three terms, a large number of constables, sub-inspectors and assistant superintendents of police were recruited. Although some senior officials were dismissed after the change of government, many pro-Awami League officials reportedly remain at the field level. There is discussion that some of them maintain contact with some senior officials of the former government and party leaders now fugitive abroad.
Intelligence sources say the banned organization’s cadres have chosen certain residential areas of the capital as safe havens, including Bhatara, Bonoshree, Aftabnagar, Mohanagar residential area, Khilkhet, Nikunja, Mohammadpur, Bosila, Kamrangirchar, Shonir Akhra, Jatrabari and Uttara. Top criminals from Bhola, Patuakhali, Barishal, Pirojpur, Bagerhat, Khulna, Satkhira, Jhenaidah and Kushtia are also reportedly in hiding in these areas.
To avoid law enforcement attention and keep their finances running, they have taken up various occupations. Some are driving ride-sharing motorcycles or auto-rickshaws. Some have opened beauty parlors. Others have set up motorcycle showrooms. Many have taken jobs at various pro-Awami League institutions. Some control certain online news portals and YouTube channels, which are being used to run propaganda against the government, in effect in support of the Awami League.
Sources say that, in the process of organizing, leaders and workers still in the country are staying in particularly close contact with several fugitive leaders abroad, including Obaidul Quader, Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, Jahangir Kabir Nanak, A F M Bahauddin Nasim, Nasrul Hamid Bipu, Enamul Haque Shamim, Jahangir Alam (former mayor of Gazipur City Corporation), Nixon Chowdhury, Nurunnabi Chowdhury Shawon, Nazrul Islam Babu, and Pirojpur’s Mohiuddin Maharaj, among others.
Cocktails and bomb-like objects have recently been recovered, abandoned, from the capital and various other locations across the country. Large quantities of explosives and bomb-making equipment have also been seized. Intelligence officials view these incidents as an early warning of deteriorating law-and-order conditions and an attempt to carry out a covert sabotage plan.
Security analyst Major General (retd) Naeem Ashfaq Chowdhury said any unrest in the country will inevitably have a negative impact on the security situation. He said the kind of instability and fragile conditions that emerged within the security forces immediately after August 5 last year have improved somewhat since then. He said the capability of law enforcement agencies has increased compared with before, and that any unrest can be countered with the public’s cooperation.
Multiple sources familiar with the matter say that although the party’s top leaders down to grassroots workers went into hiding after the government fell, their communication network was never severed. Many Awami League leaders and workers have taken shelter in crime-prone areas of Dhaka and other divisional cities. They are also moving in disguise from one district to another while maintaining political contacts. Using Telegram, Facebook and various encrypted apps, they are trying to keep leaders and workers energized by circulating Sheikh Hasina’s messages. Alongside this, efforts are under way to keep leaders and workers active with December as the target.
Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) Commissioner Mosleh Uddin Ahmed said: “Our operations against criminal networks are ongoing. We are continuously arresting them.” Asked whether any quarter was deliberately trying to worsen the law-and-order situation for a specific purpose, he said intelligence-gathering work on this is under way, and that anyone found to be specifically involved will be brought under the law.
Dr. Touhidul Haque, associate professor at Dhaka University’s Institute of Social Welfare and Research and a social and crime expert, said the talk of the Awami League returning by December is essentially a strategy to preserve political existence and keep leaders and workers energized. He said returning overnight, or by a specific deadline, is not easy after being ousted from power. He said the biggest question is how they will face ordinary people given the burden of the previous government’s record and public anger.
He said: “There is no reason to think that the party or individuals responsible for creating such extreme political uncertainty and fear in the country can easily win back public trust and suddenly return to the political arena.”