Analysis
Analysts largely agree that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran will not topple the government in Tehran. Nor will Washington achieve any clear victory in this war; instead, the conflict will likely drag on. The stalemate will continue. It is gradually turning into a war of massive attrition.
The war began with a surprise U.S.-Israeli attack on February 28. At the outset, U.S. leadership expected that mounting economic and military pressure on Iran would bring about structural change in Tehran.
But six months later, it is now clear that expectation is not being fulfilled. Instead, many are preparing for a prolonged war and its consequences.
Shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply compared with before the war. This situation has arisen following Iranian attacks on vessels and a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, disrupting energy supplies. Oil-dependent countries are still trying to manage the effects of that supply crunch.
The U.S. military remains heavily deployed in the region. American military presence here is now at its highest level in recent years.
The intensity of the war eased somewhat after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) last June. But there is still no sign the war is ending, leaving the future uncertain.
If the war drags on, existing tensions could deepen further, including tension between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia.
The influence of rival powers such as India and China has not fully stalled either, though the pace of their expanding influence has slowed somewhat. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” has already established a strong foothold across the Middle East and North Africa.
Taken together, the region is now going through a period of transformation. Formal alliances with outside powers alone no longer guarantee security.
A defense agreement was recently signed among Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in Mecca. Many more such military agreements are expected to follow in the region in the future.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the U.K.-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that the war has simply accelerated trends that were already under way, rather than starting any new ones.
Sanam Vakil further said Gulf countries were already trying to diversify their economies before the war. Many countries were also considering expanding their defense partnerships beyond existing U.S. security guarantees, while taking steps to build up their own defense capabilities.
Meanwhile, H.A. Hellyer of the U.K.-based defense and security think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said that even though it failed to subdue Iran this year, Israel is still moving forward with its plans to establish dominance in the region.
H.A. Hellyer told Al Jazeera there is no prospect of the government in Tehran falling within the next six months. In theory, he said, if everything remained the same and only economic pressure kept increasing, Iran’s state structure could eventually collapse under that pressure. But that, he said, would be a matter of years, not months — and it does not seem likely that everything will remain the same.