Germany has recently formally accused Russia of a drone attack. That has raised a new question: will NATO members, invoking Article 5, go to war against Moscow?
The question arises because of a clause in Article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO member will be considered an attack on all, triggering a coordinated response.
Germany alleges that a drone attack struck its Leipzig airport on Aug. 4. After a lengthy investigation, it recently formally blamed Moscow and has taken some retaliatory measures. Moscow has responded in kind.
European media are for now calling the situation a “new tension.” But German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has used a particular phrase to describe it. According to a Deutsche Welle report, he said last Tuesday (Sept. 1): “We are becoming a target of hybrid warfare every day.”
That raises a new question: are Russia and Germany locked in a hybrid war?
What is hybrid warfare?
Global Security Review, a platform analyzing international security, geopolitics, defense and foreign policy, says hybrid warfare refers to a combination of conventional and unconventional methods. These include military operations, cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns and economic pressure.
Former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, in an opinion piece, cited the 2016 U.S. presidential election as an example of hybrid warfare. The article was published in the international nonprofit media organization Project Syndicate about a month after the election.
Citing FBI and CIA assessments, Verhofstadt wrote that Russia both hacked and spread disinformation to keep the political winds favorable to Trump during that election. But cyberattacks are just one part of hybrid warfare, he wrote — it also includes supporting far-right nationalist organizations and populist movements, and running propaganda through state media.
NATO’s own website says hybrid activities include targeting political institutions, influencing public opinion, and undermining citizens’ security.
What’s happening between Russia and Germany
The airport where the drone attack is alleged to have occurred is a key NATO base, regularly used by Ukraine’s Antonov transport aircraft. Antonov is a Kyiv-based aircraft manufacturer, and Ukraine is engaged in a military war with Russia.
According to a BBC report, one drone at the airport was first neutralized by a robot. Investigators believe a second drone then collided with a transport aircraft. Ten days after that incident, a third drone was spotted at the airport.
In response, Germany is seeking coordinated action with its allies, including restricting Russian citizens’ access across the European Union and imposing further sanctions.
According to an AFP report, as part of the sanctions, Berlin has ordered the closure of the Russian House, a Russian cultural center based in Berlin, on allegations that Moscow uses it to spread propaganda. A Russian consulate in Bonn has also been shut down.
Moscow has described these German measures as “anti-Russian actions.” In retaliation, it announced Thursday that it would close several branches of Germany’s Goethe-Institut, a language-learning institute funded by Germany’s Foreign Ministry.
Berlin has also warned it may take steps such as covertly obstructing Russian cargo ships. These tit-for-tat measures suggest the tension over the alleged drone attack has pushed the two countries into a struggle to curb each other’s cultural and economic influence.
Is this hybrid warfare?
Following the drone incident, questions have emerged within Germany itself over whether the country is in a state of war. In a report published last Wednesday, Deutsche Welle wrote that, from a legal standpoint, Germany is not yet at war with Russia.
No war has been declared, there is no recognized armed conflict, and NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense mechanism has not been activated. Before that mechanism can be activated, NATO members must first consult under Article 4 — and no timeline has even been set for such consultations.
But the situation is different when it comes to hybrid warfare, since there is no precise definition of the term. According to security experts, Russia is already waging this kind of hybrid warfare against Western countries, including attacks on infrastructure, cyberattacks, disinformation and conventional espionage.
Germany has been among the Western countries supporting Kyiv since the Ukraine war began. In a report published in The Guardian, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said that violating airspace with drones or cruise missiles also constitutes hybrid warfare.
So is Germany in a hybrid war? Berlin has not directly answered that question so far. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told state broadcaster ARD that while not at war, Germany has become a “target” of Russia’s war.
Berlin’s “evidence” and Moscow’s response
In July, Polish outlet Onet published a report citing security sources about a possible new type of Russian attack on NATO members.
Security sources told the outlet that in extreme scenarios, “hybrid attacks” could occur in border regions, including possible provocations such as drone strikes on critical infrastructure like power plants, or creating situations resembling air attacks.
Late that same month, an explosion was heard in a remote area of Poland. At a subsequent press conference, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the site was about 80 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and that the missile that struck was likely a Russian Kh-101.
Regarding the drone attack on Leipzig airport, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said the drone’s structure, its components, the explosives and the detonator all matched Russia’s “hybrid operations.”
Berlin has cited these samples as evidence. But Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “There is no evidence. What is being shown is staged.” According to an RT report, Putin said the allegations stem from Berlin’s domestic political and economic crisis.
Why the tension now?
Germany is currently in the midst of a regional election atmosphere. The airport where the alleged drone attack occurred is in Saxony-Anhalt, where voting is due to take place this coming Sunday (Sept. 6). Ahead of the vote, various forecasts suggest the far-right AfD party is on track to form the state government.
According to a report by the news agency AFP, if the AfD does win, it would mark the first time since World War II that a far-right party has formed a regional government in Germany — a development that would have far-reaching implications for security and defense.
The coalition government led by Friedrich Merz’s CDU-CSU and the SPD raised the drone allegations against Russia amid these regional-election forecasts. But it remains unclear whether there is any link between the allegations and the election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the German chancellor is struggling to maintain public support amid factory closures, declining employment and a worsening standard of living, and is now highlighting the alleged threat of an “aggressive Russia” to the public.
Amid the new tensions, Chancellor Merz has not commented directly. Referring to the Leipzig incident in late August, he said: “Those responsible for hybrid attacks must pay a heavy price.”
The European Union and NATO have recently issued the same warning in solidarity with Germany. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “We must take stronger action. That means being ready to respond to Russia’s reckless actions quickly and effectively.”