Russia could launch an attack on any one of the countries in the Western military alliance NATO. To test the resolve and unity of these member states, Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited-scale attack within the next few years, CNN has reported, citing a recent U.S. intelligence assessment. The claims could not be independently verified.
The U.S. intelligence agencies’ assessment sets out several scenarios for a possible Russian escalation, ranging from cyberattacks to limited military incursions. The aim of such steps could be to test NATO’s unity and members’ commitment to “Article 5”.
Under NATO’s Article 5, an attack on one member of the alliance is considered an attack on all members. But Russia could take steps designed not to cross the threshold of NATO’s collective military response, sources said.
How or when Putin might take such a step is not yet clear. But according to one source, he might target the Baltic states or Poland in some way to raise tensions. The Wall Street Journal first reported news of this recent intelligence assessment.
Sources also said U.S. and NATO officials believe that if Putin cannot find an honourable way out of the Ukraine war, he could decide to escalate against NATO. The likely timeframe for Putin to choose his next move extends over the next few years.
NATO senior military spokesman Martin O’Donnell declined to comment on the classified intelligence assessment. But he said NATO was “always thinking about and preparing for various possible scenarios”.
He added that NATO was monitoring the situation and was ready to deter and defend as needed — something it continued to demonstrate.
Russia has made several incursions into NATO territory in recent years. Among them, last May, while Russian forces were striking a port near Ukraine, an explosives-carrying drone hit a residential building in Romania, injuring two people.
Earlier, last September, during a Russian assault on Ukraine, several Russian drones violated Polish airspace and were shot down by NATO fighter jets.
In addition, an explosives-laden drone was found at an airport in Germany last Wednesday night. A U.S. defence official based in Europe told CNN that, according to the U.S. assessment, the drone belonged to a Russian intelligence agency. The official said the drone carried explosives used for military purposes.
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt told reporters on Wednesday that drone sightings and drone threats were hybrid matters seen before. But an explosives-equipped drone found at an airport was a new kind of threat.
On Thursday, Dobrindt indicated that a “foreign power” might be linked to the drone, but gave no details.
Germany’s national security council, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, later met on Friday to discuss the airport incident.
The U.S. intelligence assessment of Russia’s possible plans has emerged at a time of rising concern over a significant fall in U.S. munitions stocks in the war against Iran and a rise in civilian casualties in Ukraine from Russian long-range weapons.
CNN previously reported that about 80 percent of the interceptor missiles for the United States’ key THAAD missile-defence system had been used up in the Iran war. Similarly, about half the interceptors for the Patriot defence system had also been used.
Meanwhile, the United Nations said civilian casualties in Ukraine from Russian long-range weapons rose 60 percent from January to June this year compared with the same period last year.
One night this week, at least 17 people were killed and dozens more injured in Ukraine by Russian ballistic and anti-ship missiles. According to CNN, none of the missiles fired in that attack could be stopped by Ukraine’s defences.
Analysts have voiced fears that concern over stocks of key munitions and interceptors is also affecting U.S. planning for possible future conflicts — including the prospect of Putin escalating against NATO or a possible war with China in the Pacific.
President Donald Trump has personally expressed displeasure in recent days over the fall in U.S. weapons stocks in the war against Iran.
Citing six sources, CNN said Trump had complained about the matter at a cabinet meeting at Camp David last week. But on Thursday night, on his Truth Social account, Trump said the United States had vast amounts of “munitions and missiles”.
The new U.S. intelligence assessment has emerged just as U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war have stalled.
The report said ongoing U.S. and European sanctions on Moscow had affected Russia’s economy, but that these steps had not stopped Putin’s military campaign against Ukraine.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report