The Democratic Party has won a big victory in the US midterm elections, taking control of Congress. The president’s party usually loses seats in a midterm, but the scale of this Republican defeat is being seen as a strong rejection by voters of Donald Trump’s two years in the White House.
Five factors played a major part in the Republican defeat: the rising cost of living, discontent over the Iran war, well-organised Democratic campaigns, Trump’s falling popularity, and a shift in the political leanings of Hispanic and Black voters.
1. Voters angry over the rising cost of living
Anger has been growing across the United States over steep rises in the prices of everyday goods. That discontent was plain during campaigning in the key battleground seats.
“Gas prices, grocery prices, the price of everything is going up,” a voter in North Carolina said before the election.
The voter said they had backed the Democrats this time rather than the Republicans.
Driven by rises in fuel and other prices, US inflation stood at 3.7 percent in the year to September. Government data show that the average retail price of diesel in early October was just below the record of $6.52 a gallon set in September.
Surveys of voters also showed the toll of inflation. Nearly eight in 10 voters (79 percent) said they and their families had suffered moderate or severe hardship from inflation over the past year.
More than six in 10 of those surveyed blamed Trump, saying the president’s policies had pushed prices up faster than normal.
2. Widespread discontent over the Iran war
The Iran war is one of the main reasons living costs have risen. The United States and Israel began attacking Iran in February. In response, Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of one of the world’s most important routes for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) drove up energy prices.
Ordinary Americans have felt the effect, paying more at the petrol pump.
The war has become unpopular with most Americans. Even many of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) supporters see it as at odds with his “America First” campaign pledge. During his campaign, Trump promised that the United States would not be drawn into any more wars.
In one opinion poll, about six in 10 respondents (63 percent) said military action against Iran had been the wrong decision for the United States. Three-quarters of voters (74 percent) said the Iran war had played an important part in how they voted in the congressional elections.
On the morning after the election, Trump acknowledged the war’s role in the defeat. But in an interview with Fox News, he said he had had no option other than military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
3. Well-organised Democratic campaigns to reach voters
Strong candidates were important to the Democrats’ big win. In Republican strongholds in particular, they managed to present themselves as acceptable and sincere.
Their campaigns carried a consistent message on lowering living costs and widening access to health care.
In Texas, former teacher James Talarico, and in Kansas, pastor Adam Hamilton, presented their faith and political positions in ways that resonated deeply with voters.
In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews won an unexpected victory. The former paediatrician drew a wide response with her pledge to keep health care costs within reach of ordinary people. Many Americans regard the country’s health care system as flawed.
In Michigan, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed was elected senator, holding the seat for the Democrats. His campaign’s central slogan was: “Get money out of politics and into your pockets.”
In Georgia, re-elected Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff also put living costs and corruption at the centre of his campaign. His comfortable win in a state Trump carried twice will add to speculation that the 39-year-old will run for president in 2028.
Even Trump praised the Democrats. “They did a good job,” he told Fox News.
Some Republican candidates, such as Ken Paxton in Texas, were meanwhile criticised for weak campaigns, accused of not taking voters’ concerns seriously enough.
4. Trump’s falling popularity a burden for Republicans
The two main sources of voter discontent, rising prices of everyday goods and the Iran war, are tied directly to Trump. His falling popularity therefore weighed on Republican candidates too.
Trump’s popularity has fallen even among Republican voters. That made several states that backed him in the 2024 election risky for Republicans this time.
To energise supporters during the campaign, Trump asked voters to imagine that his name was on the ballot.
But analysts say Trump, who has been at the centre of US politics for more than a decade, no longer has the profile and political pull he once had. With anger growing among voters, putting Trump at the centre of the Republican campaign became risky, and in the end it is seen to have backfired on the party.
Opinion polls in the months before the election showed that many Americans wanted Trump to pay more attention to their worries about rising prices of everyday goods.
But in his final campaign speech in Washington, DC, on Monday, he spoke at length about a controversial project to renovate the Reflecting Pool behind the White House.
5. A shift in support among Hispanic and Black voters
In the 2024 presidential election, a section of Hispanic and Black voters leaned towards the Republicans, and their support played an important part in Trump’s victory. In this midterm election, that trend appears to have reversed.
In the Hispanic-majority congressional districts along the Texas-Mexico border, Democrats won all three House seats.
According to a New York Times analysis, support for Republican Senate candidates in Hispanic-majority counties fell by more than 22 percent compared with the 2024 presidential election. Data reporter Jeff Adelson said this was the largest shift among the country’s major demographic groups.
The shift came amid anger over immigration enforcement. According to the Pew Research Center, 56 percent of Americans hold an unfavourable view of the work of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Support for Democrats in Senate races also rose markedly in Black-majority counties.
The Senate race in Mississippi is still very close. The state has a larger share of Black voters than any other US state, about 37 percent of the electorate.
If Democratic candidate Scott Colom wins, he will be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Mississippi since 1982.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report