Exit polls from Israel’s parliamentary election gave no clear sign that any party or alliance will win the majority needed to form a government. According to polls published by Israeli television channels on Tuesday, the alliance led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party could win 51 seats. The opposition alliance led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party could also win 51 seats.
That leaves neither side able to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Political bargaining over forming a government could now go on for weeks, or even months.
The polls also suggested that Arab-led parties could win 18 seats. If other parties agree to work with them, these parties could play an important part in forming a government.
How the parties reacted
Eisenkot said the exit polls showed the public’s lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Netanyahu’s alliance had suffered a “crushing defeat”. “This is a complete collapse. The people have told them to go home,” he said.
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, called the opposition’s early celebrations “premature”. “Likud is the largest party in Israel. It is always good to learn from the past,” he said on social media.
Netanyahu has served as Israel’s prime minister for about 19 of the past 30 years, and has survived political crises again and again.
Palestinian political analyst and researcher Ehab Jabareen told Al Jazeera that while the early polls clearly pointed to a weaker Netanyahu alliance, it was too soon to declare either his victory or the end of his political career.
He said the polls suggested Netanyahu’s alliance had lost its majority, but his opponents could also struggle to reach one. If neither side manages to form a government, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker prime minister while talks continue.
Who will the president ask to form a government?
It is not yet clear whom the president will ask to form a government.
After the final results are announced on 4 November, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders. He will then give the task to whoever he believes has the best chance of forming a government.
He is not obliged to choose the leader of the party with the most seats. In the current situation, Netanyahu and Eisenkot are seen as the two likely candidates.
How much time is there to form a government?
The nominated candidate will have at most 42 days to form a government: 28 days at first, which the president can extend by another 14 days.
During that time the parties will hold intense talks and bargaining. In return for their support, parties may demand policy concessions and key cabinet posts.
A candidate who cannot secure the backing of 61 members can still try to form a minority government with the support of smaller parties. Another option is a power-sharing deal under which the two leaders take turns as prime minister.
To take office, a new government must win a simple majority in a confidence vote in parliament. If some members abstain, a government can win the vote with fewer than 61 votes.
What happens if the talks fail?
If the first nominee fails to form a government, the president can give another member of parliament 28 days to try. If the second candidate also fails, a majority of Knesset members can nominate a third candidate, who gets a final 14 days.
If there is still no agreement, parliament will be formally dissolved and Israelis will have to vote again. The new election must be held within 90 days. Until then, Netanyahu’s government will remain in office as a caretaker government.
Has this happened before?
Yes. Between April 2019 and March 2020, political deadlock led Israel to hold three elections. In the end, Netanyahu and his then main rival Benny Gantz reached a power-sharing agreement under which the two were to take turns as prime minister.
That government collapsed within a year after failing to pass a budget.
Will the opposition ally with Arab-led parties?
According to the exit polls, Arab-led parties could play an important part in forming a government. But both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out an alliance with these parties, citing a lack of shared values.
Israeli political analyst Asaf Ronel said that while the polls pointed to the end of Netanyahu’s “nightmare government”, there were serious questions about whether other leaders could overcome their objections to, and discriminatory stance on, working with the Arab-led parties.
In his view, if the other parties do not step back from their campaign promises and agree to cooperate with the Arab parties, another election in Israel within the next few months is the most likely outcome.
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