Democrats are in a strong position ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The latest New York Times–Siena College poll shows Democratic candidates ahead of Republicans in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio. They also hold a favorable position in Alaska, while the race in Iowa is effectively tied.
The poll, released before the midterms, shows Democrats leading or competitive in six of the seven states considered crucial to control of the Senate.
To win a Senate majority, Democrats must hold every seat they currently control and win at least four seats now held by Republicans. The challenge of reclaiming seats in Republican-dominated states had made the path difficult from the start.
The new poll, however, shows Democratic candidates ahead in five states with Republican senators. In the sixth, Iowa, the gap between the two parties is almost nonexistent.
The Democratic leads in Texas and Kansas are especially significant. No Democratic candidate has won a Senate election in Texas since 1988. In Kansas, the last Democratic Senate victory came in 1932.
In Michigan, a key battleground controlled by Democrats, the party’s candidate is ahead by double digits. The poll was conducted before an internal dispute emerged among Michigan Democrats. North Carolina was not included. Democratic candidates have led there for a long time, while Republicans have cut campaign spending.
The poll also found that dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and voter frustration over the economy are hurting Republicans. Only 38 percent of likely voters in the seven states surveyed said they were satisfied with Trump’s performance as president.
Trump won five of those states by double-digit margins two years ago. Against that backdrop, his current support in the poll appears significantly lower.
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