KOLKATA — In nearly 50 percent of the 294 assembly constituencies in India’s West Bengal, the minority vote had until now been “decisive.” But this election’s results upended that equation. As a result, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won more than 40 percent of minority-dominated seats.
According to a report by Indian news outlet Anandabazar, of the 146 seats in the state where minority voters make up more than 25 percent (voting in Falta has not yet taken place), Trinamool won 73 this time. In the 2021 election, that number was 129. The BJP won 66 of those 146 seats, compared with just 16 in the previous vote. Of those 146 seats, the BJP won 17 where minority voters exceed 40 percent. In the 2021 assembly election, the party had won only two such seats.
According to the 2011 census, Muslims make up 27 percent of the state’s total population. Of the 294 assembly constituencies, 146 have a minority vote share of 25 percent or more. Of those, 74 constituencies have a minority vote share above 40 percent, meaning minorities play a decisive role in candidates’ victories there. Murshidabad has the most such seats, with all 22 of its assembly constituencies having minority voters above 40 percent. South 24 Parganas has 11 assembly constituencies where Muslim voters exceed 40 percent. North 24 Parganas has nine and North Dinajpur has seven. Malda has eight such seats. Nadia has six. In Kolkata, the Port and Chowringhee assembly constituencies also have Muslim voters above 40 percent.
Analysis of the results showed that the BJP also won this time in Jangipur, Murshidabad, Nabagram and Baranagar, all constituencies with Muslim voters above 40 percent. The same pattern emerged in Muslim-dominated seats such as Manikchak, Karandighi and Hemtabad. In several minority-dominated constituencies, two trends ran in parallel. First, the CPM, Congress, ISF and Humayun Kabir’s AJEUP party ate into the minority votes Trinamool had banked. Second, the Hindu vote consolidated. Statistical analysts say the polarization of the Hindu vote seen in this assembly election in West Bengal has no past parallel. Hindu votes consolidated more in this West Bengal election than in BJP-ruled states in northern and western India. In other words, the Muslim vote splintered across districts where minorities dominate, even as the Hindu majority vote consolidated.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report