Analysis
Nepal’s tourism sector was just entering its main season last September when the Gen-Z generation’s anti-corruption movement suddenly brought the entire sector to a standstill.
This political turmoil came after years of repeated blows. Before that, Nepal had been struck by devastating floods. Two major plane crashes had also raised fresh concerns about aviation safety. And the COVID-19 pandemic had brought international tourism to a complete halt.
It was at this most fragile of moments that yet another new disaster struck Nepal.
The devastating mountain flash flood that struck Nepal’s Rasuwa district last Wednesday has shattered hopes of a tourism-sector recovery. The lucrative Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage market in particular has taken a major hit. The disaster struck the Rasuwagadhi-Timure area, one of the main crossing points for pilgrims traveling from Nepal into Tibet.
The biggest issue is that this event has raised a deep question for Nepal’s tourism-dependent economy: because of climate change, are the country’s mountains becoming increasingly dangerous for tourists, day by day?
A full accounting of the damage from last Wednesday’s disaster is still under way. But the devastation has once again made clear just how deadly glacial lake outburst floods (a sudden rush of meltwater from a glacier) and climate-related disasters can be for Himalayan settlements, infrastructure and tourists.
Environmental expert Bijay Kumar Singh said: “Our tourism sector is fundamentally dependent on the mountains. The risks tied to the mountains need to be properly assessed, so that future disasters can be avoided.”
Climate-related disaster risk is becoming increasingly difficult for Nepal to ignore.
The devastating flood in the Kathmandu Valley in late September 2024 was one of the deadliest urban floods in Nepal’s history. Various assessments show that Nepal saw its heaviest rainfall in four decades during that period. According to a recent World Bank report, the flood caused extensive damage. It killed 249 people, injured 177, and displaced more than 10,000 families. Two major plane crashes also dealt severe blows to Nepal’s tourism sector.
In January 2023, a Yeti Airlines ATR-72 aircraft crashed while landing in Pokhara. All 68 passengers and four crew members were killed. Then in July 2024, a Saurya Airlines Bombardier CRJ-200 aircraft crashed shortly after taking off from Kathmandu airport, killing 18 people.
These disasters came before the unprecedented shock of the COVID-19 pandemic had even fully faded. The pandemic had pushed Nepal’s tourism into its worst state in decades.
Just as the sector was beginning to recover, political instability set in.
Now the Rasuwa disaster has created another round of uncertainty. This disaster is directly tied to the fragile state of Nepal’s mountain environment.
Experts have identified 42 glacial lakes in Nepal as extremely dangerous. Rising Himalayan temperatures and rapid ice melt mean these could burst at any time. Most of these lakes are in the Everest region, one of the world’s most popular tourist areas.
Scientists warn that global warming is causing glaciers to melt rapidly and Himalayan lakes to grow larger. As these lakes expand, their fragile natural dams could give way, sending huge volumes of water, rock and mud rushing downhill. The consequences could be extremely severe, sweeping away settlements, roads, bridges, hydropower projects and tourism infrastructure.
Nepal contributes less than 0.1 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. Even so, its fragile mountain ecosystem leaves the country severely exposed to the risks of climate change.
Environmental expert Bijay Kumar Singh said: “This disaster will serve as strong evidence for accessing international climate funds to support communities facing high climate risk. That funding could make Nepal’s tourism sustainable. Otherwise, such events will keep happening, and people will keep dying.”
The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have repeatedly warned that severe climate risk is one of the biggest obstacles to Nepal’s economic growth, because it has a serious impact especially on tourism and agriculture.
Experts say climate change is completely altering the nature of the risk facing Nepal’s biggest tourism asset — its hills and mountains.
Former environment minister Ganesh Shah said Nepal needs to invest in more sophisticated technology to protect mountain tourism and strengthen disaster preparedness.
Ganesh Shah said: “Young people around the world love adventure travel. Nepal could be a major draw for them in the future. So at the very least, mountain regions need satellite communication systems, which would help speed up rescue efforts.”
Shah said Nepal needs more advanced and precise technology to make its tourism sector sustainable.
The Rasuwa disaster has also underscored Nepal’s international importance for mountain tourism.
According to Nepal Police data as of Thursday evening, 644 Kailash Mansarovar pilgrims heading to Tibet were missing. Of them, 127 are Nepali. The largest group among the missing are Indians, at 178. There are also 55 Americans, 53 Ukrainians, 51 Malaysians, 35 Australians and 33 British nationals.
These figures make clear how heavily international tourists rely on Nepal’s route to reach Tibet.
Tour operators say demand for the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage was especially high this year. More than 40,000 people sought to make the trip, but the Chinese government capped the number of Indian pilgrims traveling via Nepal at 24,000.
The pilgrimage officially began in mid-May. It brought a surge of visitors to major transit points such as Hilsa, Simikot and Nepalgunj.
Basu Kumar Adhikari, managing director of Touch Kailash Travel and Treks, said demand for the pilgrimage had surged sharply this year because, according to the Tibetan calendar, this is the “Year of the Horse.” That year began on February 17, 2026.
According to Tibetan astrology and religious belief, the Year of the Horse is especially auspicious for pilgrimage. Devotees believe that circling the 52-kilometer route around Mount Kailash once during this year carries the same spiritual merit as circling it 12 or 13 times in an ordinary year.
The three-day Kailash kora, or circumambulation, requires pilgrims to cross one of the world’s most difficult and high-altitude mountain routes.
After being suspended for five years due to diplomatic tensions, the pilgrimage resumed for Indian pilgrims last year following an agreement between Beijing and New Delhi.
India organizes its own version of the pilgrimage through the disputed Lipulekh Pass and Sikkim’s Nathu La Pass. However, it limits the number of pilgrims to between 500 and 1,000 per year on each route.
As a result, most Indian pilgrims find it more convenient to travel via Nepal through private operators.
For Nepal’s travel agencies, this pilgrimage has become an extremely lucrative business.
The 10-day Rasuwagadhi-Kerung package costs roughly $1,700 per tourist.
Tour operators consider Kailash Mansarovar their most profitable package. The annual pilgrimage season provides good earnings for hotels, airlines, restaurants, guides and porters. It also boosts government revenue.
During the season, hotel bookings in Nepalgunj rise sharply. Entrepreneurs say the rise in Indian tourists has also boosted investment in accommodation in areas like Bahrabise and the northern town of Simikot.
But Wednesday’s disaster could suddenly upend that potential. Dipak Raj Joshi, former chief executive officer of the Nepal Tourism Board, said: “This sector will suffer because of the disaster. The impact could last at least six to seven months.”
Joshi added: “We need a dedicated tourism recovery team to send the message to the world that the rest of Nepal remains safe and intact.”
Nepal’s tourism sector has repeatedly proven its ability to bounce back from crisis in the past.
Three decades ago, political instability was perhaps the biggest threat the tourism sector faced. Joshi said: “Looking back three decades, Nepal’s tourism has almost always been beset by political turmoil.”
The Maoist insurgency, which ran from 1996 to 2006, killed more than 17,000 people and brought economic activity across the country to a standstill. The 1999 hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight and the September 11, 2001, attacks also had a direct impact on global travel, which affected Nepal. The 2001 royal family massacre pushed political uncertainty to an extreme.
Even after the 2006 peace accord, frequent strikes and shutdowns disrupted business, discouraging tourists and investors.
Then came a severe power crisis. At one point, the country faced load-shedding of up to 18 hours a day.
The 2015 earthquake was another major blow. It killed roughly 9,000 people and caused damage worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Tourism infrastructure and archaeological heritage sites were severely damaged, and the number of foreign tourists declined.
Despite all this, the tourism industry has bounced back.
Joshi said the hopeful part, amid all these setbacks, is that “Nepal has a remarkable ability to recover quickly from crisis.”
The COVID pandemic put that resilience to another major test. International tourism was completely shut down for nearly two years. Since then, tourist numbers have gradually begun rising again.
But Wednesday’s disaster is of a different nature. It points to a danger that cannot be solved through political stability or marketing campaigns alone.
Nepal Mountaineering Association general secretary Rajendra Lama said this disaster struck a major blow just as the tourism industry was finally regaining its rhythm after the pandemic.
According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, travel and tourism contribute 6.6 percent of Nepal’s GDP. It is also the main source of income for people in remote mountain regions, where alternative income opportunities are virtually nonexistent.
This overdependence leaves the tourism sector especially exposed to disaster risk.
Natural disasters destroy roads, bridges, airports and hotels; halt the supply of goods; and damage an area’s reputation for safety through canceled bookings. But the Rasuwa disaster carries a clear message: there is no longer any way to treat tourism policy and disaster preparedness as separate matters.
Nepal’s challenge is no longer simply about attracting more tourists. Part of the challenge now is keeping the very mountains that attract tourists safe to visit.
That will require modern early-warning systems, stronger infrastructure, reliable communications, satellite monitoring, and greater capacity for rapid rescue operations in remote areas. At the same time, other climate-change risks around major tourist destinations, including glacial lakes, need to be assessed with precision.
Nepal’s tourism industry has survived political instability, violence, plane crashes, earthquakes, pandemics and protests in the past.
But as the Himalayas grow warmer, Nepal is now entering an era in which nature itself is becoming the biggest source of uncertainty facing its tourism sector.
Environmental expert Bijay Kumar Singh said: “Climate change is changing everything, and Nepal has no way to ignore it.”