The initial understanding reached between the United States and Iran toward a ceasefire has handed Tehran major economic benefits. At the same time, the toughest concessions Iran would ultimately have had to make on the two countries’ most complex disputes and on its nuclear program have, for now, been left for future negotiations. That too is largely positive for Iran.
Under the understanding, the United States will lift the naval blockade imposed on Iran’s ports. Most significantly, Iran will be allowed to export oil again before a final nuclear agreement is reached. This will give the country, long in economic crisis, a crucial economic lifeline. In recent years, Iran’s economy has been under severe pressure due to a sharp depreciation of its currency and high inflation.
In return, Iran’s main commitment is to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to international commercial shipping for the next 60 days. The understanding, however, leaves open the possibility of imposing transit fees on shipping after that period.
Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po in France, said: “On balance, the understanding appears to favor Iran. In exchange for relatively limited new nuclear commitments, Tehran has made progress toward sanctions relief — particularly the chance to resume oil exports, economic benefits and reduced military pressure.”
According to Grajewski, most of the difficult concessions the United States had sought to extract were deferred for future talks. Although the balance of gains and losses for the two sides could shift in a subsequent agreement, Iran has won relatively greater immediate and tangible benefits under the current understanding, she said.
The understanding calls for the United States to lift the naval blockade immediately and for Iran to guarantee commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether these steps have already taken effect in practice, however, is not clear. Even so, news of the agreement pushed down oil prices on world markets. The average price of gasoline in the United States also fell below $4 a gallon for the first time in months.
Some analysts critical of Iran, however, expressed concern over the understanding. Miyad Maleki, a former U.S. Treasury official and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the pledge to temporarily ease banking sanctions to facilitate Iran’s oil trade could weaken the most effective instrument of U.S. economic pressure.
Those who support diplomacy with Iran rather than open conflict or sanctions, on the other hand, praised the memorandum, saying it offered an opportunity for a new chapter in U.S.-Iran relations.
Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said these were not concessions but a correction of a long-failed pressure policy that had ultimately made war inevitable.
Some analysts questioned why, if such an understanding was possible in the end, it could not have been reached before months of war. Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the talks could have taken place without three months of war. An issue like the Strait of Hormuz, which had historically been open, could have been resolved through diplomacy.
She added that the most difficult issues in the understanding — particularly setting specific limits on Iran’s nuclear program — had been left for future negotiations.
“I am skeptical that the next 60 days of talks will deliver any real result,” she said. “It is simply pushing the problem into the future.”
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report