The United Nations’ climate agency has warned that El Niño could become “very strong” in the coming months, with conditions potentially persisting until February next year.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday that El Niño will reach peak intensity later this year. The resulting climate shifts could continue through 2027, bringing major changes to rainfall and temperature patterns and creating risks of flooding, drought and heat waves.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise well above normal, causing widespread shifts in air pressure and rainfall patterns worldwide.
El Niño typically recurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months. However, it is not caused by climate change.
Scientists warn that the planet, already warmed by the burning of fossil fuels, will see that warming compounded by El Niño, intensifying extreme weather events further.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño is visibly taking on a larger, stronger form before our eyes. Sea-surface temperatures are rising, and the mercury keeps climbing, he said, adding that this is unfolding alongside the race to tackle climate change — a race we must win.
A major economic shock
El Niño typically peaks in intensity toward the end of the year. The excess ocean heat then gradually spreads into the atmosphere, driving up global temperatures the following year.
Records show the warmest year on record followed the last El Niño, in 2024. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño has the capacity to deliver major shocks to communities and economies worldwide. Disasters and extensive damage from drought and flooding have already been seen, she said, and the impact will only grow as El Niño intensifies.
Saulo issued particular warnings for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water. Disaster-management authorities must prepare quickly, she said — there is no time to lose.