The 2024 student-public uprising ended nearly a decade and a half of authoritarian political rule. After that, following an interim period, Bangladesh set out on a new economic reality under an elected government. In its first six months in office, the BNP government’s biggest challenge was restoring economic stability and reinvigorating exports, the country’s main source of foreign currency earnings. That test has shown signs of a turnaround in the export sector’s overall picture, even as the energy crisis has exposed clear weaknesses in growth. According to those in the sector, the energy crisis is dimming export earnings prospects, and the government’s $63 billion export target for the 2026-27 fiscal year is being seen as a major challenge to achieve.
The government has set a target of $63.4 billion in combined goods and services export earnings for the 2026-27 fiscal year. Of this, the plan calls for $55.2 billion from goods exports and $8.2 billion from the services sector. Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir recently announced this target. The new target is roughly 15 percent higher than the export earnings achieved in the outgoing 2025-26 fiscal year. According to economists, given both domestic and global conditions, setting a $63 billion export earnings target is ambitious.
Within the new target, the readymade garment sector is expected to make the largest contribution to goods exports, with $44.5 billion in earnings expected from this sector. Garment exports earned $38.7 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Earlier, for the 2025-26 fiscal year, the target had been set at $55 billion from goods exports and $8.5 billion from the services sector. Combined, that fiscal year’s export earnings target was $63.5 billion. However, actual export earnings fell short of the target by year’s end, so it could not be achieved.
After the current government took office, an energy crisis emerged as a result of the Iran war. The country’s gas shortage has already grown severe once again. On one hand, production costs are rising; on the other, falling demand means product prices are not rising. Six months of the government’s term have passed under these conditions. During that period, the export sector has not reached a state of durable turnaround. Instead, export earnings have fluctuated month to month, depending on orders, global demand, production capacity and shipments.
According to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data, export earnings over the six months from February to July 2025 stood at roughly $24.08 billion. By contrast, earnings over the same period in 2026 stood at $24.30 billion. That means growth over six months has been very marginal — roughly 0.9 percent. Yet within that period, there were two sharp declines and two strong growth spurts.
According to EPB data, export earnings in February stood at $3.49 billion, roughly 12 percent lower than the $3.97 billion recorded in the same month the previous year. Weak global demand, falling orders and declining garment exports dealt a major blow to exports that month. Garment exports, the leading export item, fell by more than 13 percent in February.
The situation worsened further in March. That month, export earnings fell to $3.48 billion, down from roughly $4.25 billion in March the previous year — a decline of roughly 18 percent year-on-year. Ramadan, the long Eid holiday, and disruptions to production and supply, alongside global uncertainty, put pressure on the export sector during this period.
A major turnaround followed in April. Export earnings reached $4.01 billion, up 32.92 percent from roughly $3.02 billion in the same month the previous year. Those in the sector said this growth came from a backlog of production and shipments delayed by March’s holidays being cleared in April, along with a rise in garment shipments.
However, this growth momentum could not be sustained in May. That month, export earnings stood at $4.40 billion, down 7.07 percent from $4.73 billion the previous year. The long Eid holiday and slowing global demand were among the main reasons for this decline.
Exports saw another major jump in June. That month, earnings reached $4.20 billion, up 25.91 percent from $3.33 billion the previous year. Strong performance across major export sectors, including garments, brought relief to exports toward the end of the fiscal year.
In July, the first month of the new fiscal year, export earnings rose further to $4.72 billion, up 12.49 percent from June. However, this was 0.9 percent lower than the $4.77 billion recorded in July the previous year. Garment exports also fell by 1.92 percent that month.
Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said six months is not enough time to evaluate any government. Still, he said, the new government has taken a number of initiatives to make doing business easier, support the private sector, and restore economic momentum.
He said: “We welcome the government’s decision to allow partially export-oriented exporters without bonded-warehouse facilities to import raw materials duty-free against bank guarantees. This will be very helpful for our exporters and will make it easier for them to operate. Some good changes have also been made to tax policy, with business- and investment-friendly measures introduced.”
He added: “Right now, a major challenge for industry is the gas and electricity crisis. On top of that, problems in the banking sector remain unresolved. The overall law-and-order situation has also deteriorated somewhat during this period. The government is making every effort to tackle these challenges. I hope they will be able to resolve these problems over the long term.”
The overall picture suggests the export sector has not yet reached a state of durable turnaround. Instead, export earnings continue to fluctuate month to month, depending on orders, global demand, production capacity and shipments. The same pattern was seen in the last fiscal year as well. Total goods export earnings in the 2025-26 fiscal year stood at roughly $48 billion, down 0.58 percent from $48.28 billion in the previous fiscal year.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report