The memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war between the United States and Iran expired Monday, August 17. With both sides having accused each other of violations over the past several weeks, there is little sign either side is interested in extending it.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on Telegram Saturday that Iran has not yet decided whether to resume talks with the United States.
Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan, however, have continued exchanging messages with Iran. Araghchi said Iran and Oman are separately trying to reach an agreement on establishing a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, though he stressed that would only be possible once a political solution is reached. Separately, US President Donald Trump told supporters in New York on Friday that the United States could soon announce it was taking control of the strategic waterway itself.
What was in the memorandum?
The memorandum was signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17, following rare high-level talks hosted by Pakistan. Its aim was to end a war that had run more than three months, killed thousands of people, and severely disrupted commercial traffic in the Gulf region, including oil and gas exports of major global importance.
Setting aside complex issues such as Iran’s nuclear program for later negotiation, the memorandum sought an immediate diplomatic end to the war with Tehran, alongside a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. It stated that the United States and Iran would “declare an immediate and permanent halt to military operations,” with a final agreement to permanently end the fighting on all fronts.
The UN Security Council was to approve that final agreement, to be completed within 60 days at most, with room for a mutually agreed extension. Under the terms, the United States was to lift its naval blockade within 30 days. Once the final agreement was reached, US forces were to withdraw from around Iran, and Washington was to begin work on a reconstruction and development package worth at least $300 billion for Iran. The United States also agreed to lift sanctions on Iran, grant exceptions for Iranian oil exports, and allow Tehran to access frozen funds.
Iran, for its part, was responsible for clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz and allowing ships to pass “without any fees” for 60 days. Tehran also reaffirmed it would not seek to build nuclear weapons and agreed to hold talks on issues including uranium enrichment. The details of these matters were to be spelled out in a final, UN-backed agreement.
Did the understanding succeed?
Although the versions of the agreement published by the US and Iran differed somewhat, disputes emerged almost immediately over more fundamental questions: whether it was a ceasefire at all or something more permanent, and which side bore which obligations.
Disagreement also quickly arose over whether the understanding was ever fully in effect. By June 27, Trump was describing an Iranian strike in the region as a “foolish violation” of the agreement. Iran countered that a US strike had violated the agreement’s first article.
On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over.” The United States nonetheless continued striking Iran, hitting sites Tehran described as civilian infrastructure and killing at least 50 people. Iranian officials say the United States “violated and suspended” all its commitments, so Tehran suspended its own commitments in response. The US, however, never fully lifted sanctions on Iran, and Trump mocked the idea of funding Iran’s reconstruction, saying instead that Tehran should compensate the families of protesters killed over the past 50 years, as well as those killed or seriously injured by roadside bombs and various conflicts.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz never materialized either; both Iran and the United States still claim they control it. Earlier this week, the Pentagon said the US had fired on a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the strait, claiming the vessel had violated the US naval blockade on Iran.
Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at Tehran’s University of Applied Science, told Al Jazeera that the ceasefire broke down and the agreement became unworkable because the United States failed to abide by its terms.
In his view, Iran believes specifically that the United States never released its frozen assets, never lifted sanctions, never withdrew its naval blockade, and never ensured Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon. “Now, officially, on paper, we’re being told the deadline has passed,” he said.
What could happen now?
Monday’s expiration of the understanding means different things depending on which side is asked. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Friday that the memorandum signed in Islamabad represented “an end to the war, not a ceasefire.”
In remarks to the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA), he said that because the United States kept attacking in violation of the agreement, “there was never really a 60-day ceasefire to extend.”
Recent changes within Iran’s national security apparatus also point toward a tougher Iranian stance in any future talks, particularly over control of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is seen as unlikely to make concessions easily. Earlier this month, Mohsen Rezaei, former head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was appointed head of the Supreme National Security Council, the country’s top security body, a move analysts say is aimed at improving coordination between military and civilian operations.
Khoshcheshm said Rezaei’s appointment and other recent leadership changes suggest “Iran believes it holds the advantage.” He predicted that if talks resume, Iran will come to the table with a longer list of demands, potentially including an end to the war in Gaza, the lifting of sanctions, an end to the blockade on Yemen, and even calls for Israel’s nuclear disarmament.
Meanwhile, rhetoric from Trump and his administration over the Strait of Hormuz and economic pressure on Iran has grown increasingly hard-line. Trump announced Friday that the United States plans to formally claim the Strait of Hormuz as US territory.
“Once we finish defeating Iran, I will very soon declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory,” he said. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said Friday that measures “never seen before” would be taken against Iran.
But Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, said Trump has few options left if Washington wants to further pressure Tehran. She said US interceptor-missile stockpiles have been depleted, strategic oil reserves are running low, and key military assets, including aircraft carriers, have been kept deployed for months longer than planned, leaving the US with limited room to escalate militarily.
Slavin said Iran has also demonstrated it can inflict economic damage of its own by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran has taken a hard line here,” she said. “They’re clearly angry at the Trump administration because, in their view, the US never fulfilled the commitments it signed up to in June.” She said Iran and its supporters are piling pressure on both the global economy and on Trump personally. In her assessment, Iran will likely ultimately secure compensation for the war and significant control over the Strait of Hormuz, with the conflict most likely resolved through a deal, possibly only after the US midterm elections, once the political risk of such a deal affecting the vote has passed.
Separately, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf told reporters in Tehran Saturday that the concessions Iran extracted through the memorandum were “a source of pride and victory.” “I can say with complete confidence that we have emerged truly victorious from this war, both militarily and politically,” he said.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report