Israel’s national election is less than a month away. After the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and nearly three years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and with Iran, the country’s politics have changed profoundly, and the election has become a key test of that change.
Both the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition camp led by his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are well short of the 61-seat majority needed, raising the prospect of another hung Knesset.
A recent Channel 13 poll showed Jewish parties opposed to Netanyahu winning 52 seats and Netanyahu’s coalition 51. It projected 22 seats for Eisenkot’s Yashar party and 18 for Netanyahu’s Likud, but neither side came close to the 61 seats needed to form a government.
Eisenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). His son and two nephews were killed in the Gaza war, and he was part of the unity government Netanyahu formed after the October 7 attack for about eight months.
Netanyahu, for his part, is making his long political experience and national security key pillars of his campaign. He is one of Israel’s longest-serving prime ministers and has led Likud into many elections.
Eisenkot faces an important political constraint: he has ruled out forming a coalition with some parties representing Israel’s Arab citizens. So even when the opposition parties’ combined seats in polls come close to the number needed, the arithmetic of forming a government remains complicated.
Divisions are also clear within Israeli society around the election. Alongside Netanyahu’s supporters, there is discontent over his government’s war policy, military conscription and the economy, in particular the long-running dispute over exempting ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, Jews from military service. The issue grew more heated after Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that there was no legal basis for continuing to exempt Haredi men, and Haredi parties that are key to Netanyahu’s coalition are pressing his government on it.
The economy is another key issue. Amid regional conflict and supply disruptions, food prices in Israel have risen 9.5 percent over the past two years, and concerns about the war and the cost of living are also on voters’ minds.
Israel’s national election is due on October 27, 2026, the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Current polls give no clear picture of who will form a government; neither of the two main camps is near a majority on its own, and coalition arithmetic could decide the next government.
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