A new instability has appeared in Bangladesh-India relations, which stand at a fresh crossroads. Nearly two and a half years after being ousted in the face of a powerful student-people mass movement and leaving the country, Sheikh Hasina has announced she will return home this December. She said so in an online message to Indian and foreign journalists in New Delhi on 5 August. Despite the risk of imprisonment or even a death sentence if she returns, she said she had taken the decision out of an urge to serve the country and its people.
The ruling BNP government has expressed strong anger at Hasina being given the opportunity to hold a press conference in New Delhi. Voicing deep concern, Dhaka said it had warned the Indian government in advance about the negative impact such an event could have on rebuilding bilateral relations, and was deeply disappointed the open event was allowed.
Dhaka has described such an event, held on the second anniversary of Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, as “an attack on Bangladesh’s sovereignty and an extreme insult to the martyrs of the July revolution.”
India had distanced itself from the matter even before the online press conference. It claimed the event, held at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia, had no connection with it and that it had not authorised the banned Awami League’s press conference. But India’s explanation could not satisfy Dhaka.
Background and India’s unease
In July-August 2024, Sheikh Hasina used extreme force to suppress the student-people movement. More than a thousand people were killed in the bloody crackdown. Ultimately, on 5 August, she resigned and fled to India. Since then, deep anger has grown among Bangladeshis over India granting her shelter — anger that grew further after a special tribunal sentenced Sheikh Hasina and her home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal to death for crimes against humanity in November 2025.
Over Sheikh Hasina’s various statements and interviews while in India, Dhaka has repeatedly called on New Delhi to stop her political activities, and has even demanded her extradition to face trial. But India has so far sidestepped these requests.
New Delhi believes forcibly sending Hasina back to Bangladesh is not an option for India. But her voluntary decision to return could ease some of the current tension. There is speculation that India is working behind the scenes with several European countries to ensure Hasina’s security after she returns; India’s foreign ministry has not commented.
Bangladesh-India relations were quite warm during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure but cooled after her fall, when the interim government led by Dr Muhammad Yunus leaned towards China and showed indifference to India’s concerns. Although the BNP was once seen in Delhi as “anti-India,” hopes of reshaping relations arose after the party came to power last February. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman’s April visit to New Delhi was seen as an initiative to restore trust. Even so, India remains cautious over the BNP government’s growing closeness with Pakistan, China and Turkey.
With a 4,100-kilometre border, a stable relationship with Bangladesh is very important for India. In particular, boosting connectivity with the landlocked north-east and Dhaka’s cooperation in suppressing insurgency there are essential for New Delhi.
Because of these calculations, India has taken several steps in recent months to improve relations with Dhaka. In February it sent Foreign Secretary Bikram Misri and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to Prime Minister Tareque Rahman’s swearing-in.
Amid an energy crisis, India sent 45,000 tonnes of diesel in April 2026. To repair relations, it appointed Dinesh Trivedi as the new envoy in Dhaka, even giving him cabinet-minister rank to ensure his easy access to Bangladesh’s prime minister. India has also invited Tareque Rahman to the BRICS summit to be held in Delhi in September, though Bangladesh’s prime minister has not yet accepted.
Ganges, Teesta and the future outline
The Ganges water-sharing treaty could be an important issue in shaping the course of bilateral relations. The 30-year treaty, signed after Sheikh Hasina first became prime minister in 1996, expires this December, and must be renewed taking into account the river’s current water flow and the impact of climate change. A quick renewal could further strengthen Dhaka’s relationship with Delhi.
With the BJP now in power both at India’s centre and in West Bengal, India and Bangladesh are in a more favourable position than before to conclude a Teesta water-sharing treaty — a long-standing demand of Dhaka. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had earlier opposed it.
India’s Narendra Modi government should also heed the recommendations of the Parliamentary Committee on External Affairs. In a report published last July, the committee urged the government to build trust by leveraging its advantages in development cooperation, so as to cement India’s position as “Bangladesh’s most reliable partner.” The committee also expressed deep concern over “China’s growing footprint” in Bangladesh, especially in infrastructure development, port expansion and defence cooperation.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report