Three of the world’s most powerful leaders, US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, are set to sit down together. The three-way meeting is due to take place on 19 November in Shenzhen, China, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. The meeting has drawn wide international interest, but analysts doubt it will produce any major agreement or diplomatic breakthrough. They expect its symbolic weight to outstrip anything it actually achieves.
A joint meeting of the leaders of the United States, Russia and China is without precedent. The three countries are divided over trade, security, war and nuclear arms control, so their presence at the same table will send an important signal in international politics. No final understanding has yet been reached on the meeting’s agenda or format.
The leaders’ talks could cover global issues such as the wars in Ukraine and Iran, nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence, but a major agreement is unlikely. Nuclear arms control and the Iran war may be discussed. A US administration official has signalled that the war in Ukraine may be avoided.
Three leaders, three aims
Each of the three leaders has separate diplomatic and political goals. President Trump wants to start talks with Russia and China on a new nuclear arms control agreement. He also sees the meeting as a chance to show his diplomatic influence and leadership on the world stage.
New START, the last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, expired in February 2026. As a result, for the first time in more than five decades, the treaty’s limits no longer apply to the strategic arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers. Instead of the old bilateral treaty, Trump has talked of a broader, more modern agreement that includes China.
China, however, has little interest. Its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than those of the United States and Russia. By the Pentagon’s estimate, the United States and Russia each hold more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, while China’s arsenal holds more than 600. Beijing therefore does not want to enter arms control talks on equal terms.
China’s position is that because the American and Russian arsenals are so much larger, joining talks with them in the same framework is neither fair nor realistic. For that reason, no major progress is expected at the meeting on Trump’s proposed three-way nuclear deal. A senior US administration official acknowledged that Washington does not expect any nuclear agreement to be announced either.
For Putin, the meeting matters in a different way. One of his aims may be to open a path to a settlement ending the war in Ukraine on Moscow’s terms. But Beijing does not want Ukraine on the agenda, and an official in Washington said Trump is not expected to raise the war at the three-leader meeting.
Fears of a new Yalta
The planned meeting has also brought up the 1945 Yalta Conference at the end of the Second World War. There, US President Franklin D Roosevelt, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill discussed the political future of post-war Europe. The conference shaped many decisions on the post-war order, including the plan to divide Germany and Berlin into military occupation zones.
This meeting, too, has stirred fears among smaller countries. Their concern is that the great powers could reach an understanding in their own interests in which the views of the countries concerned count for nothing. In particular, there are fears that any talks among the United States, Russia and China on the future of Ukraine and Taiwan could take place without the parties involved.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that the meeting must not become a new Yalta that redraws spheres of influence. He fears an attempt at a settlement of the Ukraine war that bypasses Kyiv.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, rejected the comparison with Yalta. He said no understanding reached in Shenzhen could be imposed on other countries, and that the future of the international order should be decided on the basis of mutual interest and respect.
An opportunity for China, and some discomfort
By hosting the meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping has a chance to show Beijing’s influence and standing among the world’s leading powers. As host, though, he also faces some diplomatic complications.
China’s relationship with Russia has grown closer in recent years. When Western countries tried to isolate Russia’s economy after the war in Ukraine began, China stepped up its purchases of Russian energy. Beijing’s role as a supplier of key technology and components used in Russia’s military industry has also grown. At the same time, China’s position on the Ukraine war and its relations with Western countries are sensitive matters for Xi.
Moscow is keen to discuss the war in Ukraine, but Beijing does not want it on the agenda of the three-way meeting. China is equally reluctant about the US proposal on nuclear arms control.
China also wants to present itself at APEC as a champion of free trade and multilateral cooperation. A separate meeting of the leaders of the world’s three biggest powers could overshadow the summit’s main message of multilateral cooperation. According to Hoo Tiang Boon, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, such a three-way arrangement could clash with China’s stated commitment to multilateralism.
How far-reaching will the meeting be?
The leaders of the United States, Russia and China have met bilaterally many times before. Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times since 2013. Trump and Putin have met face to face seven times, and Trump and Xi eight times, according to a report by AP.
This, however, is the first time the three will meet together, which gives it diplomatic significance. But the differences in their interests and priorities could stand in the way of any major agreement.
The meeting may bring grand photo opportunities and political speeches. But there is no basis for expecting the wars in Ukraine or Iran to end simply because the three leaders sit down together. According to Simon Mabon, professor of international politics at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, the meeting could become a stage to project Trump’s image as a world leader, but it will not guarantee an end to the wars.
All in all, the Shenzhen meeting matters for understanding the relations and positions of the great powers in world politics, but the chance of any major deal in the short term is limited. In the end, its symbolic message, the leaders’ contact with one another and the diplomatic moves that follow will decide its real importance.
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