Iran wants to prolong the war because it believes economic pressure poses no threat to the survival of its government, said Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
About six months after the war began, Iran is now sure that the United States is unwilling to launch a ground operation, he said. Stephens told Al Jazeera: “That existential threat is gone. So they want to increase the pace of the war and perhaps make the pain a bit sharper for President Trump. And the best way to do that is to prolong the war.”
Before the 28 February US-Israel strikes, it was widely believed that the Iranian government had come under major protests in late December and January. After months of unrest, it had been thought that the Iranian government would easily collapse under the US-Israel strikes.
“Now the situation does not seem to be like that,” he said. “I am not entirely sure whether the United States has any means to force the regime to act as it wishes.”
In Stephens’s view: “The current stalemate is painful for Iran, but it is not an existential crisis. I think that is now the United States’ problem.”
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