Russia plans to raise defence spending sharply from next year while cutting education budgets and raising taxes, according to draft budget documents.
The war in Ukraine is in its fifth year, and both sides have stepped up long-range strikes, with Moscow attacking Kyiv from the air almost daily. The draft budget has been submitted to the lower house of Russia’s parliament for approval.
Under the draft, Russia plans to spend a record 17.1 trillion roubles (about $204 billion) on defence in 2027, nearly 26 percent more than last year’s forecast for 2027.
Defence spending is forecast to fall in 2028 and 2029, but Russia has repeatedly exceeded its long-term defence spending forecasts since its military operation in Ukraine began.
Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said actual defence spending could be higher still, because much of it is kept secret. In his view, the published figures are only the opening bids in budget talks between the finance ministry and the security agencies.
When the draft was published last week, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov described both social welfare and defence as “priorities”. But the budget documents show large cuts outside the military.
Health and education spending for 2027 is being cut by more than 5 percent each from the original plan, and social programmes could be cut by more than 6 percent. To cover the deficit, the government has proposed tax rises, including higher rates on bank deposits and property sales.
Debt is rising
Russia’s budget has been in deficit every year since the military operation in Ukraine began. The 2027 deficit is forecast at about 5.4 trillion roubles, or $64.4 billion, more than 70 percent above the 3.2 trillion roubles forecast for 2027 last year.
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