Sheikh Hasina, who has been on Indian soil for nearly two years, wants to return to Bangladesh in December with party leaders and workers, and has expressed a wish to surrender to court on returning. Her statement has caused a stir in both Bangladesh and India. But Delhi observers see it less as a “firm announcement of return” than as an attempt to “test the waters.” India’s official position on Hasina’s stay remains unchanged: over recent days several senior Indian foreign and home ministry officials have said India did not invite Hasina in and give her shelter of its own accord, nor is it now forcibly expelling her. A senior South Block official said: “If, after assessing the situation, she wants to return, she will; and if she decides to stay in India, then so be it.”
In an interview last week with the international news agency Reuters, Hasina said she was planning to return home in December with party leaders and workers and wished to surrender to court, adding that she had decided to return knowing she could be arrested or even hanged. The BBC spoke with senior Indian officials, analysts, former diplomats and India-based Awami League leaders about her statement. Two main points emerged: first, that her saying this does not necessarily mean she will return from India to Dhaka in December — her return will depend on how the situation develops over the intervening five months, how the Bangladesh government reacts and what stance the international community takes; and second, that while she did not take the decision in consultation with any foreign government, observers agree she did not make the statement without India’s tacit consent.
The Indian government also believes the announcement does it no harm and more good: if Hasina returns, India will be freed of two years of diplomatic discomfort, and if she does not, Delhi can say she wanted to return but the Bangladesh government failed to create a favourable environment — so the statement is seen as killing many birds with one stone, pushing the ball into the Bangladesh government’s court. India’s former high commissioner to Dhaka, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, believes Hasina is serious about returning, as her return is needed to save the Awami League, and said that if she returns she would appeal against a death sentence in court and could be kept in safe custody during the trial, so behind-the-scenes bargaining between Delhi and Dhaka to ensure that security would be no surprise. Delhi political analyst Jayanta Roychowdhury said Hasina wants to send a message to the BNP that she herself will go and block attempts to ban the Awami League and make it irrelevant.
Among the several thousand Awami League leaders and workers who have taken shelter in India since August 2024, there is a mixed reaction to her statement. Many leaders feel the BNP government would not want Hasina to return in the current complex political situation, and there is doubt over how many would accompany her; some say they are ready to fly back with their leader, while a former cabinet member said international attention would be on Hasina’s trial, but ordinary leaders and workers returning would be jailed immediately in false cases without anyone even knowing, so it is hard to say now how many will accompany her.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report