Belgium are ranked 9th in the FIFA rankings and the United States 16th, making Belgium the favourites on paper. But ahead of their round-of-16 clash in Seattle on Monday (6am Bangladesh time), Belgian winger Dodi Lukebakio is refusing to call his side favourites. Instead, he sees the match as “fifty-fifty.”
“Everything is different at the World Cup. The United States are playing at home and will have the support of the fans. So the match will be 50-50,” Lukebakio said.
Statistics support his assessment. Opta’s supercomputer gives the United States a 37.2% chance of winning in 90 minutes compared to Belgium’s 36.5% — a negligible difference.
The United States, coached by Mauricio Pochettino, topped Group D and beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the round of 32 to reach this stage. They have scored at least two goals in four consecutive matches — the first team from outside Europe and South America to achieve that feat at a World Cup.
Belgium’s path has been less comfortable. They advanced from their group with only one win and trailed Senegal 2-0 until the 85th minute in the round of 32 before completing an extraordinary 3-2 comeback in extra time.
Belgium’s knockout pedigree is strong, however — they have won five of their last seven World Cup knockout matches. The United States, by contrast, have been eliminated in five of six round-of-16 appearances, with the sole exception being their 2002 victory over Mexico that carried them to the quarterfinals.
The two sides met in a friendly in Atlanta in March, where Belgium won 5-2 with Lukebakio scoring twice. But the Belgian winger believes a World Cup match in front of a home crowd will present an entirely different challenge.
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