British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce his exit timetable on Monday, smoothing the way for an orderly transfer of power to his rival, Andy Burnham. It would leave the United Kingdom on course to get its seventh leader, or prime minister, in a decade.
Starmer came to power with a landslide victory, promising to end the UK’s chaotic politics. But less than two years later, a source said, he spent last week weighing whether to resign or fight to hold on to the leadership.
Starmer has been under pressure for months. It intensified after the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, won a parliamentary by-election by a wide margin last Friday, defeating a candidate of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the party that has led national opinion polls for more than a year.
Burnham’s victory has stirred new hope among Labour lawmakers. Known as a skilled communicator, Burnham is seen by party members as someone who could turn around the fortunes of a Labour Party that has fallen behind under Starmer, whose approval rating is currently the lowest of any British leader.
The much-anticipated leadership change is not without risk, however. Although he has spoken of fundamental change for the country and of cutting the cost of living, Burnham has not yet made clear his views on foreign, economic and defence policy. Like Starmer, he could come under pressure from bond-market investors strongly opposed to excessive borrowing. He would also have to face voters angered over the quality of public services and the standard of living.
Because of high debt and interest rates, years of slow economic growth and the need for defence investment, the UK’s borrowing costs are currently the highest among the wealthy G7 nations.
Speaking to the Reuters news agency, investors gave divided views on Burnham. Last September, Burnham said the UK should break free from subservience to the bond market. He later claimed his remarks had been misrepresented. Last Friday, Citibank economists said: ‘In our view, Burnham will inherit a risky fiscal situation in which there will not be many tools to bring about meaningful change.’
Last Friday, Keir Starmer said he would fight any formal contest for the party leadership. But over the weekend that position appears to have changed.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source said: ‘Keir is thinking deeply about it.’ A change of leadership without any formal contest within the party could anger ordinary voters, because the public would have no role in deciding who runs the country from Downing Street.
The former UK health minister Wes Streeting had said he had the support of the 81 Labour lawmakers needed to enter the leadership race. But a senior party figure believes Streeting may reach an understanding with Burnham, withdrawing from the race in exchange for the promise of a senior post under him.
Starmer’s camp believes the huge win in the 2024 national election gives him a mandate to remain in power until 2029. But Trade Minister Peter Kyle said on Sunday that the prime minister was currently weighing his political challenges.
If Starmer announces his exit timetable from Downing Street on Monday, Andy Burnham would become the UK’s seventh prime minister in the 10 years since the Brexit vote, the highest frequency of leadership change in the country in nearly two centuries. The political turbulence reflects the anger that has built up among voters over the failure of one government after another to improve living standards, raise the quality of public services and control illegal immigration.
The political consultancy Eurasia said the best solution might be for Starmer to announce his resignation in September. That would allow him to attend the UK-European Union summit in July and give Burnham enough time to form a government.
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