The Palestinian armed group Hamas and its allied resistance groups have agreed in principle to a disarmament roadmap. But carrying out the plan, they say, requires a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, the start of reconstruction, and effective progress towards establishing an independent Palestinian state.
Although the recent announcement has prompted talk in various quarters that Hamas has completely abandoned armed resistance, analysts say the matter is not so simple in reality. According to Hamas’s position, it is not willing to surrender its weapons directly to Israel. Instead, it proposes handing over its arms to the security forces of an independent Palestinian state, once such a state is established.
Under the proposed plan, if Israel fully withdraws its troops from Gaza and does not obstruct reconstruction there, the Palestinian resistance groups will begin a step-by-step process of storing and deactivating their heavy weapons. Personal weapons would be brought under registration, and responsibility for security management would gradually be handed to Gaza’s administrative structure.
The plan’s success, however, depends largely on Israel’s position. So far there has been no effective positive signal from Israel on a full troop withdrawal from Gaza or on reconstruction.
Various sources allege that violence in Gaza has not entirely stopped even after the ceasefire announced in October 2025. Hamas says that, under the ceasefire’s terms, it has carried out no new attacks against Israeli forces and has moved to hand over administrative responsibility to a national administrative committee. It alleges, on the other hand, that Israel has violated various ceasefire terms, obstructed humanitarian aid entering Gaza and continued military operations.
The analysis also said Hamas has taken this step mainly with two goals in mind — easing the suffering of ordinary people in Gaza and creating a path towards an independent Palestinian state. But if Israel does not move to implement these conditions, fears have been expressed that the situation could turn towards conflict again.
At the same time, analysts believe regional geopolitics could play an important role in determining the crisis’s future. In particular, a possible regional conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel could add a new dimension to the situation in Gaza.
According to observers, Hamas’s proposal is seen on one hand as an effort to ease Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, while its implementation will depend entirely on Israel’s political decisions and on future progress on the question of establishing an independent Palestinian state.
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