Before US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has even announced new measures to pressure Iran’s economy, the situation for Tehran keeps getting harder. President Donald Trump clearly has the upper hand in this fight; with the enemy trying to retreat, his main task now is simply to hold his position firmly.
Most significantly, oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed. That means Tehran’s gambit of closing the strait has failed.
Meanwhile, Iran’s neighbors — the very countries it had been attacking — have taken a harder line of their own. The United Arab Emirates, Iran’s largest trading partner, halted all transactions with Iran, including financial transactions, starting last week.
For decades, Dubai served as Tehran’s main hub for evading sanctions, and more than a third of Iran’s total imports passed through the city.
Amid already-severe unemployment and multiple crises, inflation in Iran had climbed past 90%, leaving the government struggling even to pay its regular army on time.
Now even the Revolutionary Guard is expected to feel the severe economic impact — a threat to the very foundation of the regime.
Friday’s news was highly significant: oil tankers are once again moving normally through the Strait of Hormuz, under US Navy escort. Nearly 200 ships a week — and rising — are now passing safely, roughly 400% more than just two weeks ago.
That rate is still below pre-war levels, but combined with shifts in production and export routes elsewhere in the world, it has been enough to keep oil prices in check — even though they remain somewhat higher than January levels.
Iran’s leaders have gone back to their old “good cop, bad cop” routine. One set of officials froths at the mouth with threats, while another claims to want peace and offers talks. But if Washington responds to that “offer,” Tehran will likely start extracting one concession after another from the United States before it even pretends to sit down for meaningful talks.
This maneuver is largely aimed at supporting a narrative pushed by Trump’s domestic critics — that Iran’s leadership was eager for lasting peace, but the US-Israeli strikes killed off the so-called moderates and let “hardliners seize power.” The implication is that to defeat these hardliners, the West must strike a deal with the remaining “moderates” so they can push out the “extremists.”
Iran’s ruling establishment has run this same playbook, in various forms, for decades. Yet Western liberals — media outlets especially — keep falling for it every time, even though these supposed “good cops” have never actually delivered any positive change.
As Mark Dubowitz warned in The Post last week, Tehran may be preparing one more major move in this playbook. Just before elections in Israel and the United States, in late October, Iran could launch a large-scale attack using its stockpiled missiles, drones and cyber capabilities.
The goal would be to sow maximum panic among voters in both countries — hoping to see Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ousted from power and Democrats win a clear majority in the US Congress. That would give them an opening to block the Pentagon’s budget and tie Trump up in a fresh impeachment fight.
Trump and his administration should warn the American public about this possible scenario now. They need to make clear that while Iran has been cornered, it still retains some capability — and it will do everything it can to try to break our resolve.
Both sides now stand at the final stage of a direct confrontation — so this is not the time for Washington to step back or look away.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report