A German economist who drew attention for correctly predicting the champion at each of the last three World Cups has issued a new forecast. He says the Netherlands could win the 2026 football World Cup.
Three correct calls in a row
Joachim Klement, an economist at Panmure Liberum investment bank, built a statistics-based model in 2014, mainly to poke fun at economists’ tendency to make predictions.
But the model went on to prove strikingly accurate.
Germany won in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.
In a recent interview, he said it started as a joke, but getting it right three times in a row was genuinely unexpected.
How the model works
His analytical model takes several key factors into account.
Population and the potential pool of players
The popularity of football
Average weather (around 14 degrees Celsius is ideal)
Per-capita GDP
FIFA ranking and recent form
In his view, these factors heavily influence how teams perform.
Why the Netherlands lead this time
In his analysis, the Netherlands are ahead for several reasons.
Population: about 1 crore 84 lakh
Football: a hugely popular sport
Average temperature: 10.5 degrees Celsius
Per-capita GDP: about 77,000 dollars
FIFA ranking: 7
Recent form: unbeaten since March 2025
On that basis, he has predicted that the Netherlands’ opponent in the final could be Portugal.
Luck is the deciding factor
According to Klement, luck plays a large role in a tournament such as the World Cup. By his calculation, about 45 percent of the outcome depends on luck.
He said that when the gap in strength is very small, a little luck can change the result of a match.
A different picture in the betting market
Although the Netherlands top his model, they remain well down the bookmakers’ list. The favourites are:
Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.
On the Polymarket forecast too, the Netherlands’ chance of winning is only about 3 percent.
The Netherlands’ group fixtures
In Group F, the Netherlands will play Japan, Sweden and Tunisia.
Match schedule
June 14: Netherlands vs Japan
June 20: Netherlands vs Sweden
June 25: Tunisia vs Netherlands
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