Four consecutive record-breaking heatwaves across Europe this summer have caused at least 35,000 more deaths than the same period last summer. That estimate is based on incomplete data covering less than half the continent, meaning the final death toll could be significantly higher. The figures come from a report by British news outlet The Guardian.
Excess deaths in Germany, France and Spain — the European Union’s three largest countries — have already surpassed 25,000 combined, based on preliminary national estimates. Experts say the toll will rise significantly once full August data is included.
Successive heatwaves have battered Western Europe since May, breaking all-time temperature records at hundreds of weather stations. France recorded its hottest day on record based on national average temperature. Germany saw temperature records broken on three consecutive days in late June, with 46 weather stations recording temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). In Spain, temperatures stayed above 42 degrees Celsius for an extended period.
Scientists say human-driven global warming is making such extreme heatwaves more frequent and more intense.
Germany hit hardest
Germany has reported the highest death toll so far. The country’s public health agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said late last week that an estimated 14,000 people died from heat-related causes between April 6 and August 9. In just the one week of June 22-28 alone, 9,600 people died, according to the RKI.
According to EU excess-mortality data collected regularly since 2008, that week in June this year saw the highest excess death rate since July 2022 — though the COVID-19 pandemic was still active at that time.
Since records began, 2026 is the worst year on record in Germany for heat-related deaths. The country’s previous record for heat deaths was in 2018, when 8,900 people died. The RKI said heat-related deaths in Germany typically stay below 2,000 in a normal summer.
Spain surpasses its previous record too
According to the mortality monitoring system at Spain’s Carlos III Health Institute, 4,947 people have died from heat-related causes in the country between May and this week. That makes 2026 the worst year in Spanish history for heat-related deaths. The previous record was set in 2022, when 4,520 people died.
Different countries calculate heat-related deaths using different methods, however. Spain and Germany use real-time modeling to estimate heat deaths, analyzing the relationship between daily temperatures and death rates to estimate how many deaths are attributable to heat.
Such estimates are necessary because death certificates rarely list “heat” directly as a cause of death. Excessive heat typically worsens a person’s pre-existing conditions, such as respiratory or heart disease. Ultimately, the affected person may die of a heart attack, a stroke, or kidney failure.
Determining the final cause of death can therefore take weeks, even months. Many European countries have not yet published death figures even for early August. Germany’s former health minister, Karl Lauterbach, said last week that the figures published so far are more likely than not to eventually prove lower than the true death toll.
A dire situation in France too
In France, more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius. At one point, 98% of the country was under a heatwave warning. France initially published excess-death figures based on deaths from all causes, before determining through more detailed analysis how many deaths were directly linked to heat.
The country’s national health agency said last week that excess deaths from late May through July 22 stood at 7,300. August data was not yet available, however. The preliminary figures are based on electronic death certificates, which capture roughly 80% of the country’s total deaths.
Italy’s death toll could rise further
Italy’s national heatwave monitoring system relies on data from local municipalities, meaning the country’s full national death figures are often significantly delayed. Italy has so far provided only incomplete real-time indicators rather than full national death figures.
According to model-based estimates, Italy saw around 2,700 more deaths than normal in the week of June 22-28 alone. Epidemiologists say that once the official count is complete, Italy’s total heat-related death toll could range between 5,000 and 8,000.
Excess deaths in the UK and several other countries
Several other European countries have already published excess-mortality data. The UK Health Security Agency said in July that, according to its model, the May and June heatwaves caused 2,877 heat-related deaths in England.
Belgium reported that its death rate rose 39% between June 18 and 29, meaning 1,222 more people died than normal during that period. The Netherlands reported at least 900 more deaths than normal between June 22 and July 5.
A rapid modeling study cited by the European Commission found that the late-June heatwave caused an estimated 1,070 additional deaths in Poland. According to Switzerland’s public health authorities, excess heat-related deaths stood at 220 during the same week. Preliminary estimates from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark each indicate roughly 40 excess deaths per country.
According to estimates from French news agency AFP, temperatures rose above 40 degrees Celsius this summer in areas of Europe home to more than 80 million people.
Risk rising alongside the climate crisis
The World Health Organization (WHO) said in May that heat-related death rates in its European region have risen more than 30% over the past 20 years. The organization warned that this figure could rise significantly further in the future because of the climate crisis. As Europe’s population continues to age, it said, the health risks of extreme heat will also continue to grow.
This summer’s four consecutive heatwaves have become a grim preview of that future. And the more than 35,000 excess deaths recorded so far are not the final figure. The true scale of the toll will become clearer once complete August data and further health analysis are published.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report