The Mecca joint defence pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey has run into a major test within a month. After the renewed intensification of Saudi Arabia’s conflict with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the question has arisen: if Saudi territory is attacked, will Pakistan defend Saudi Arabia militarily under the pact, or will it avoid becoming directly involved in the war in Yemen?
Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, signed the pact in Mecca on August 7. Its central principle is that an armed attack on any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack on all three. Pakistan has described the pact as defensive from the outset. Pakistan’s foreign ministry said its aim is not war against any country but the strengthening of collective resistance and self-defence against external attack.
Fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces in Yemen has meanwhile intensified. The Houthis have advanced along the Red Sea coast, seized the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands and moved towards the Mokha area. Citing United Nations information, the report said more than 100,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since September 3 and many civilians have been killed.
There have also been attacks on Saudi territory. Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, said on September 9 that the Mecca defence pact could come into effect if the Yemen conflict spread to Saudi Arabia. According to him, Pakistan would carry out its responsibility under the terms of the pact if necessary.
Despite that statement, Pakistan has not so far begun any direct military operation against the Houthis in Yemen. Pakistan’s foreign ministry said on September 11 that the Mecca pact had not yet reached full operational status and that there was no plan for Pakistani forces to strike Houthi targets inside Yemen. Islamabad also stated its support for Saudi Arabia’s sovereignty and its position in favour of a peaceful solution to the Yemen crisis.
The matter is particularly complicated for Pakistan. The country has a long-standing military relationship with Saudi Arabia. At the same time it has to take into account its relationship with its neighbour Iran. Iran is widely said internationally to have close ties with the Houthis. If direct Pakistani military operations began in Yemen, security cooperation with Saudi Arabia would deepen, but Pakistan’s relationship with Iran could become still more complicated.
Islamabad is therefore drawing a distinction between two kinds of step: air defence, intelligence sharing, training and military cooperation to protect Saudi territory, and direct attacks inside Yemen. Defending Saudi territory and joining offensive military operations in Yemen are not the same decision.
The experience of the Yemen war of 2015 also matters for Pakistan. It did not take part directly in the Saudi-led military operation then. In the present situation too, Islamabad is trying to keep its commitment to Saudi security and direct participation in the war in Yemen separate.
Houthi attacks towards Saudi Arabia are meanwhile continuing. Middle East Monitor reported on September 19 that the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and on Yanbu. The Houthi claims have not been independently verified.
The biggest question about the Mecca defence pact is therefore the practical application of its military commitment. What kind of assistance Pakistan would give if Saudi Arabia were attacked — whether only defence, or attacks on Houthi positions inside Yemen if necessary — cannot be fully answered from what has been made public about the pact.
Pakistan’s public position, however, is clear so far: the Mecca pact is defensive, Islamabad is committed to Saudi Arabia’s security, but no decision has been taken to enter the war in Yemen directly. The pact’s first test is therefore not only military; how Pakistan keeps itself out of the war in Yemen while maintaining its commitment to Saudi security has also become important.
বাংলায় মূল প্রতিবেদন পড়ুন · Read the original Bengali report