Only four matches, including the final, remain before the curtain comes down on the longest World Cup in the tournament’s history. After the great battle of 48 teams, Argentina, England, Spain and France are still alive in the fight for the title. Before the World Cup began, the football statistics analysts Opta’s supercomputer had tipped all four of these teams to reach the semifinals. The supercomputer has now turned to selecting the champions, and after precise calculations it has named the likely winner too.
According to Opta’s supercomputer analysis, France have the greatest chance of winning this World Cup. In superb rhythm on the back of the brilliance of Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, France have a 57.7 percent chance of reaching a third consecutive final and a 34 percent chance of winning the title. Their semifinal opponents, Spain, have a 42.3 percent chance of reaching the final — the third highest among the four teams — but stand second in the title race with a 23.4 percent chance. The supercomputer reckons the winner of this semifinal, to be held in Dallas on Tuesday, has the best chance of ultimately lifting the trophy.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, England are third in the chances of winning the World Cup, with a 21.9 percent chance of taking the title. But in the chances of reaching a World Cup final for the first time since 1966, they are second, slightly ahead of Spain. England have a 50.9 percent chance of reaching the final at the expense of world champions Argentina.
Despite being the current champions, Argentina are furthest behind in the title race in the supercomputer’s calculations. Lionel Messi’s side are given a 20.6 percent chance of winning the World Cup, the lowest of the four teams. But their forecast to win the semifinal against England is almost even: in 49.1 percent of 25,000 simulations, Argentina are said to beat England to reach the final. In other words, the result of this contest could go either way. Opta’s supercomputer runs about 25,000 simulations to determine the likely result of a match, and sets each team’s chance of winning by analyzing information including teams’ recent performance, players’ statistics, strength and past record. It correctly forecast the results of all the quarterfinals at this World Cup, with all four of its chosen teams clearing the quarterfinal hurdle to reach the semifinals. Earlier, it had correctly predicted six of the eight round-of-16 matches and, of the 16 matches in the first knockout round, had determined the winners of 14 in advance through simulation.
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